The ex-Foreign Minister believes that the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh in 2025 should replace the contingent of the Turkic states

Baku/07.08.23/Turan:  Araik Harutyunyan, the leader of Armenian separatists and a declared war criminal in Azerbaijan, delivered a strong anti-Azerbaijani speech on local television. He accused Baku of terrorism and imposing a blockade on the former Nagorno-Karabakh region, while also claiming that Armenia intends to withdraw further support for Armenians in Azerbaijan. Harutyunyan called for international pressure to force Azerbaijan to reopen the closed Lachin road, which was used for military equipment supply from Armenia. He expressed hope for the activation of anti-Azerbaijani forces worldwide and emphasized Armenia's growing defense capability.

According to Turkish media, the volume of Indian weapons delivered to Armenia through Iran has reached $750 million, with more expected shipments.

Experts from Baku shared their views on social media regarding Harutyunyan's speech. Elkhan Shainoglu, head of the Atlas Analytical Center, believes Harutyunyan accurately grasps Azerbaijan's intention to end separatism and integrate the region. Shainoglu states that Azerbaijan will utilize all available means to achieve this goal, and the November 9, 2020 Statement cannot deter them. Harutyunyan understands that Russia's preoccupation with the Ukrainian situation has left the Armenians in Karabakh in a challenging position.

Ilgar Velizade, Chairman of the Club of Political Scientists of the South Caucasus, does not believe that external pressure can effectively influence Baku's actions. He highlights the existence of the Lachin checkpoint and counter-terrorism measures in the Karabakh region, indicating Azerbaijan's resolve. Velizade does not foresee opportunities for the reopening of the Lachin road, hoping that current realities will prompt Yerevan and Khankendi (Stepanakert) to adopt a more pragmatic approach. However, he warns that if they fail to understand, Baku may resort to harsh measures to resolve the situation within the framework of international norms.

Former Foreign Minister Tofik Zulfugarov notes Yerevan's intention to secure itself with a peace treaty with Baku and then continue making territorial claims on Karabakh, emphasizing the "right and security" of Armenians with international participation. Zulfugarov observes that the former "OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs" and Iran are factors acting against Azerbaijan, as they aim to perpetuate the conflict as a means of regional management.

Azerbaijan is adopting a "mirroring" strategy in response to Armenia's desire to continue the conflict. Baku raises issues such as "Western Zangezur and Goych Mahala," as well as "Communities of Western Azerbaijan," signaling its refusal to accept borders defined along the 1975 line. Azerbaijan asserts that it will insist on the line established before autumn 1920 and is prepared to expand the conflict zone to the territory of Western Zangezur and beyond, given its political and defense dominance. Azerbaijan intends to handle the reintegration process of Eastern Zangezur without external involvement. If Russia opposes this process, there might be a plan to replace the Russian peacekeeping mission with a police mission consisting of members of the Organization of Turkic States countries before 2025, according to Tofik Zulfugarov's statements.