The Second Coming of Mikhail Saakashvili: What to Expect?!

First, the “hero of the day” is President V. Zelensky, who, before his decision, had been criticized by Saakashvili, who has repeatedly stated that the results of the new government’s work for the year are disastrous. Ukraine rushes to the economic crisis, followed by the collapse of the country into five parts. Extraordinary steps are needed to save the Ukrainian economy, which in 2020 will pay $ 17 billion of foreign debt.

Zelensky is criticized from all sides, paying little attention to what powerful internal and external forces are opposed to his political and economic undertakings. In fact, both opponents and supporters of the president of Ukraine, for the most part, are products of the old system of political worldview, and almost no one knows how to behave in a political era of a pandemic. It is significant that in these conditions Zelensky revised his old attitudes and invited M. Saakashvili to share the burden of economic reforms in Ukraine. It is such a time when you need a person free from family, oligarchic and clan ties that form the immortality of corruption of power. Saakashvili is the most acceptable candidate capable of destroying these ties in Ukraine, since he succeeded in Georgia. Making the decision, Zelensky apparently also had in mind another important circumstance, let us say, Saakashvili’s difficult relationship with former President Petro Poroshenko, Interior Minister Arsen Avakov and oligarch Igor Kolomoisky, who continue to play an exceptional role in the life of Ukraine.

As for the foreign policy reaction, the President of Ukraine soberly calculated that the negativity of Moscow and Tbilisi is completely overlapped by the unspoken support of Washington and the IMF's rather sympathetic sympathy. And finally, if V. Zelensky, in the event of an economic reform failure, agrees to resort to the scenario predicted by some political scientists today, in which Saakashvili is assigned the role of a “lightning rod” (read: “scapegoat”), then he will equally and fairly share the blame with the approved them today's appointee.

In the meantime, the entire political spectrum of Ukraine voices assessments of the new presidential appointment or draws conclusions that he prefers not to advertise. The outwardly ambiguous attitude of the main faction of the Verkhovna Rada and the Cabinet of Ministers, headed by Denis Shmygal in real summation, is more likely negative than positive, but internal party discipline still requires demonstration of at least some unity. Deprived of such a restraining factor, Chairman of the Political Council of the Opposition Platform - For Life Party, MP Viktor Medvedchuk considers Saakashvili to be a “conductor of foreign governance policy,” which during his work in Ukraine has not shown himself useful for the country. It should be noted that Medvedchuk knows what he is talking about, since he himself is a conductor of a similar policy, except with another center of external management. By the way, the assessment of the leader of the opposition party "Democratic Movement - United Georgia" Nino Burjanadze, who believes that the new appointment will result in a crisis in relations between Kiev and Tbilisi and adversely affect the Russian-Ukrainian dialogue, is just as authoritative. She predicts that the current president, like his predecessor, will still regret his decision. Both politicians are explaining something like “very Russian”: Saakashvili’s main trump card is an anti-Russian card; he will gain points in the eyes of the West, scolding Putin and Russia, which means he will again spoil everything. Then the expected summary: “Today it is obvious that Saakashvili will not benefit from the power, the country or the Ukrainian people, in this post, which was artificially created for him. Including in matters of reform. "It seems that the objective “outsiders” conceal something.

Most of the other influential people in Ukraine show expectant silence. However, let us turn to the “main accused,” whose excessive political ambitions are hard to deny. The question is what these ambitions are aiming at as their ultimate goal. “To achieve the highest posts and powers in Ukraine, of which M. Saakashvili is a citizen,” some will say. “The return of the supreme power in Georgia, whose citizenship the wanted runaway ex-president has lost,” others will say. Well, this is such a curious alternative that ignoring it is imprudent (at least for extremely interested people).

M. Saakashvili, having received an appointment (05.07.20), almost immediately (05/12/20) began to act: held a meeting with acting US Ambassador to Ukraine Christina Quinn, discussing US involvement in the reform process in Ukraine, suggesting "even closer" involvement of the US Agency for International Development and the embassy directly in the reform process. As an excellent negotiator and a member of the IMF, Saakashvili will undoubtedly take upon himself the preparation by the Fund of Ukraine of almost $ 6 billion in credit and negotiations on new injections into the country's economy.

According to the analyst of Dmitry Plotnikov, Saakashvili with a reputation as a reformer will be much easier to conduct “non-economic” negotiations with Ukraine’s European and American partners, thereby strengthening the image of V. Zelensky. This resource is most important in the year of the US presidential election. Another resource of Saakashvili’s political activity the author sees in smoothing out the emerging conflict of central authority with the regions, on which, in fact, the integrity of Ukraine depends. In this regard, of course, a “war with a common enemy” (Poroshenko, Avakov, and Kolomoisky) and the search for new political allies within the country will develop.

Thus, the outwardly non-pretentious post of the head of the Executive Committee for Reforms under the President of Ukraine opens up good political horizons for such an active figure as Saakashvili. Does this mean that Saakashvili’s political career is forever connected with Ukraine? The facts make us give a negative answer to this question. The point here is not only the political ambitions of the hero of the article, accustomed to being the first acting character in any play. It is important that the situation in Georgia, which is preparing for the parliamentary elections crucial for the country, is not in favor of the current authorities of the “Georgian Dream”. Last year was marked by a powerful protest movement of more than 20 opposition parties, often led by the "Unified National Movement" created by Saakashvili in the early 2000s. All statements by senior Georgian officials and their assessments of Saakashvili’s appointment reflect a serious alarm over the ex-president’s possible return to political Olympus. The activities of Saakashvili in the new post will be watched by many unfriendly eyes, and the results of his work will become an indicator of the justification of his claims.