Which opposition party leader do they want to see as president in Azerbaijan?

With the exception of the first years of restoration of state independence in Azerbaijan, it was very difficult to determine the real rating of opposition political parties. We have always witnessed debates between opposition organizations on this issue.

The lack of fair and democratic elections in the country did not allow the emergence of real ratings. At the same time, the lack of independent and professional opinion polls, which reflect the real picture in society, also played a significant role in this issue.

In fact, both factors have been purposefully prevented by the political forces in power in various ways. This problem still persists. There is no opportunity for democratic elections or independent and professional opinion polls.

In recent years, with the spread of social networks, new initiatives are being taken to study the real rating of opposition political organizations in the country. There are attempts to learn ratings virtually that are difficult to learn directly in real life.

If we pay attention to the recent virtual surveys, a number of interesting points will emerge. Therefore, given the importance of these virtual surveys, we will try to analyze them from several aspects.

In total, more than a hundred thousand Google accounts took part in the survey. These accounts mostly belong to the most politicized individuals. Such polls are mostly conducted by people who have made or are inclined to make political choices. This can be considered a more objective indicator of the real situation.

One such survey was conducted by the Internet channel Bumerang Media, which operates on the social network YouTube. This virtual survey was conducted in two stages. In the first stage, 3 polls were conducted, each with 5 party chairmen. In the first stage, 3 winners selected from 15 party leaders were taken to the next stage.

In the first stage, the question "Which opposition party leader would you like to see as president in Azerbaijan?" was asked. The first virtual voting, which was attended by 26,000 virtual respondents, included the names of 5 party leaders. (https://www.youtube.com/post/UgzDjU31eRSPEil6zlp4AaABCQ)

As a result of the voting, Ali Karimli, chairman of the APFP (Azerbaijan Popular Front Party), received 45% of the vote, Tural Abbasli, chairman of the White Party - 29%, Igbal Aghazade, chairman of the Umid Party - 12%, Ali Aliyev, chairman of the CDP (Citizens and Development Party) - 10%, and Sardar Jalaloglu, chairman of the ADP (Azerbaijan Democratic Party) - 3%. Thus, Ali Karimli won in the first poll.

The second virtual voting was attended by 12,000 virtual respondents, which is 50% less than the previous one. (https://www.youtube.com/post/UgzZPXUR_BVy-ByKrjV4AaABCQ)

Ali Insanov, chairman of LJP (Law and Justice Party), received 62% of the vote, Hafiz Hajiyev, chairman of the Modern Musavat Party - 16%, Arif Hajili, chairman of the Musavat party - 11%, Panah Huseynov, chairman of the People's Party - 6%, and Elshad Musayev, chairman of the GAP (Great Azerbaijan Party) - 5%. Ali Insanov won in the second poll.

The third virtual voting was attended by the least number of respondents, i.e. 9.9 thousand virtual respondents. (https://www.youtube.com/post/UgxpSEHNutEhUwb9cul4AaABCQ)

Mirmahmud Miralioglu, chairman of CPFP (Classic Popular Front Party), received 65% of the vote, Ilgar Mammadov, chairman of the ReAl Party - 16%, Nemat Panahli, chairman of the NSP (National Statehood Party) - 7%, Fazail Aghamali, chairman of the Motherland Party - 7%, and Aghasif Shakiroglu, chairman of the FAP (Future Azerbaijan Party) - 5%. Mirmahmud Miralioglu won in the third poll.

In the second stage, the names of the three people who came out on top in the first stage and the option "There is no opposition leader worthy of being president" were put to a vote. (https://www.youtube.com/post/UgyUknz5qcVicmxI59p4AaABCQ)

In the voting with the participation of 21 thousand virtual respondents, Ali Karimli was again with the first 46% of the vote. Ali Insanov and Mirmahmud Miralioglu received 5% and 4% of the vote, respectively. 45% answered positively to the option "There is no opposition leader worthy of being president".

Along with Bumerang Media, the Internet channel Azad Soz also conducted a similar survey. (https://www.youtube.com/post/Ugx0_0bidC5R0CGNdSh4AaABCQ)

45,000 virtual respondents took part in the survey "Which party leader do you support the most in Azerbaijan?". The survey included not only the leaders of opposition parties but also the chairman of the ruling YAP (New Azerbaijan Party). In this virtual voting, the chairman of the APFP, Ali Karimli, won the most support by receiving 40% of the vote. YAP chairman, President Ilham Aliyev - 33%, Tural Abbasli, chairman of the White Party - 19%, Ali Aliyev, chairman of the CDP - 6%, and Ilgar Mammadov, chairman of the ReAl Party - 2%.

When analyzing the results of the surveys, a number of points are noteworthy. Interest in the last virtual voting of the first stage was at the lowest level. 9,900 virtual respondents took part in the voting, which included the names of Mirmahmud Miralioglu, Ilgar Mammadov, Nemat Panahli, Fazail Aghamali, and Aghasif Shakiroglu.

Interest in the second virtual voting was also not high. 12,000 virtual respondents took part in the voting, which included the names of Ali Insanov, Hafiz Hajiyev, Arif Hajili, Panah Huseynov, and Elshad Musayev. In general, a total of 22,000 people took part in the two polls. However, 26,000 virtual respondents took part in the first virtual voting. There was more interest in the voting, which included the names of Ali Karimli, Tural Abbasli, Igbal Aghazade, Ali Aliyev, and Sardar Jalaloglu.

Not only in these two virtual resources but also in a number of different levels, our monitoring has similar results. Although we do not claim the absolute validity of the results of virtual voting, there is no doubt that the overall results are realistic. We should take into account that the organizers of the most mass rallies held in recent years, not only in the virtual space but also in real political activity, were Ali Karimli and the political organizations to which he belongs.

At the same time, Ali Karimli is the chairman of the party most criticized and persecuted by the government. It is no coincidence that the APFP is often mentioned as an organization with a large number of political prisoners.

This leads to two conclusions. The government puts the most pressure on the most supported opposition organization and leader in the country's political life because it knows the public interest and support for them. Or the prestige of the main rival of the government has risen to the top because it puts the most pressure on him. In both cases, the result is that the government's domestic policies have angered people. The government's domestic policy determines the address of its alternative.

Nasimi Mammadli