Syria on the Brink of Collapse: A New Middle East Map is Being Redrawn - A Conversation with Stanislav Tarasov

The events in Syria are analyzed in the program "Complex Question" by historian, political scientist, and expert on the Middle East and Caucasus, Stanislav Nikolayevich Tarasov, a Candidate of Historical Sciences.

From 1978 to 1991, Tarasov worked in the Turkish broadcasting division of USSR Gosteleradio in the Middle East, serving as a special correspondent and commentator for the Main Editorial Office of International Relations of Central Television. Between 2004 and 2006, he was the chief editor of the international relations section of the weekly newspaper Vek. Since 2007, he has been the editor-in-chief of the weekly Russian News. He is the author of several books on issues related to the South Caucasus, Turkey, Iran, and other Middle Eastern countries, as well as numerous articles published in specialized literature.

According to Tarasov, the disintegration of Syria as a state is a fait accompli. Damascus has lost its significance, and there is currently no charismatic leader or ideology to unify the country. Most likely, Syria will break into enclaves following the pattern of the French Mandate (a result of the Franco-British Conference in San Remo in 1920, later ratified by the League of Nations on September 29, 1923).

Under the French Mandate, Syria was divided into six parts: the State of Damascus, the State of Aleppo, the Alawite State, Greater Lebanon, the Druze State, and the Sanjak (province) of Alexandretta (Hatay, transferred to Turkey after a referendum in 1939).

Tarasov does not believe that Syrians will agree on a federation, given the divergent interests of both internal forces and external players.

The expert suggests that external players anticipated the advance of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, "Organization for the Liberation of the Levant") toward Damascus. He points out that the rebels themselves likely could not have developed such a "strong and capable unit" within a year or inflicted such heavy damage on Assad in two weeks without external support.

Tarasov noted that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan could have saved Assad's regime as recently as the summer, but this did not happen due to certain circumstances.

He also stated that Russia intended to protect the regime, but its efforts were obstructed by Iran.
"In Tehran, it was believed that Russia and Turkey conspired against Iran. A conspiracy was brewing within the Syrian leadership. At that point, Moscow decided there was no reason to continue the fight. As a result, Assad was left without support," the analyst said.

Regarding Israel's actions, Tarasov claimed that Israel intends to create a Kurdish government within Syrian territory:
"They are about to proclaim a Kurdish government in one of the settlements in Syria. The Kurds have established contact with Israeli and American leadership. And as you know, there is an American contingent in eastern Syria. The Americans have announced their intention to remain there. Previously, they had stalled the process of forming a Kurdish state in eastern Syria, but now that process could become a reality."

He also believes Israel is trying to control Druze-populated areas to establish a state for the Druze.
"If the plans for creating Kurdish and Druze states are realized, the state of Syria will cease to exist," Tarasov concluded.