Debt Balance of Azerbaijan Not as Stable as Government Says
Azerbaijan's debt balance is not as stable as the government says.
According to the expectations of the International Monetary Fund in the last regional review, GDP in Azerbaijan by the end of the year is expected to reach $ 35.7 billion (57.8 billion manat at the current exchange rate). In this case the total public debt (on external and domestic liabilities) will be at the level of 39.6% of GDP, or $ 14 billion 137 million. It is three and a half times the foreign currency reserves (by Oct. 1, according to the Central Bank, they were $ 4 billion 132.7 million).
Recall, the government of Azerbaijan has always voiced level of the total debt in 12-13% and reported additional lending opportunities in the country by international financial institutions.
By October 1, the GDP amounted to 43 billion 436.3 million manat (minus 3.9% versus the same period last year). The SSC explains this with a decline in output in the construction sector. However, this is not the case - for example, in the record year 2014 due to oil exports, the figure was $ 75 billion 188 million. "Thanks" to the double devaluation of the manat, it sank more than twofold. --17D-
Economics
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Azerbaijan's financial standing continues to strengthen as the country's foreign currency reserves have surged to $71 billion as of January 1, 2025, according to the Ministry of Finance. This figure, which includes reserves held by the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) and the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA), far exceeds the nation's external debt, which stands at a fraction of its reserves, specifically nearly 14 times less. This robust reserve position reflects Azerbaijan's fiscal stability and the government’s strategic economic management.
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According to operational data from the Ministry of Energy of Azerbaijan, in January 2025, the country produced 2.3 million tons of oil, including condensate, and 3.9 billion cubic meters of gas.
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The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) has opened a representative office in Albania and is set to launch a specific project this year, the Albanian company "Albgaz" announced.
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"Azerbaijan is currently among 54 middle-income countries," said Shahmar Movsumov, head of the Economic Affairs and Innovative Development Policy Department of the Presidential Administration, during the presentation of the World Bank’s World Development Report 2024 in Baku on February 10.
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