Three on the ship, excluding the UN

As Hungary commemorated its Statehood Founding Day on August 20, tracing its origins to the coronation of Stephen the First in 1000, leaders from nations enmeshed in various collaborative endeavors convened in Budapest. These ventures spanned from cultural unions embodied by the Organization of Turkic States to energy partnerships bridging the Caspian Sea with Europe's southern regions.

Prominent figures, notably representing Turkey, Russia, and Qatar, took center stage. According to multiple Western sources, they engaged in preliminary discussions to explore the conditions for resuming a grain deal suspended by Moscow on July 17. At this gathering, Rustam Minnikhanov, the leader of Tatarstan, a substantial Turkic republic within Russia, represented the Kremlin. The selection of Minnikhanov by Putin bore a symbolic significance as a Turk and Muslim leader heading a region historically linked to the Magyars' ancestors.

Putin's shift away from Western alliances is apparent as he increasingly seeks partnerships with nations in the global south, including Southeast Asia, Africa, and Central Asia. Turkish leader Erdogan has emerged as a key collaborator, evidenced by their dialogue in early August to rekindle their partnership. The likelihood of a new accord is substantial, with initial talks in Hungary set to continue in Istanbul. The Daily Sabah newspaper reports the possibility of technical negotiations between Moscow and Kiev concerning the activation of a grain corridor occurring in Istanbul.

Reports suggest that Russia insists on an agreement involving Qatar and Turkey to expedite grain exports to Africa. Putin asserts that Russia can address the African export gap, with Turkey overseeing cargo operations and Qatar providing financial backing. A trilateral agreement involving Russia, Turkey, and Qatar has purportedly been formulated to replace the expired one.

The previous grain agreement facilitated the shipment of 33 million tons of grain to global markets and was brokered in Istanbul in July 2022, joined by Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN. This accord encompassed secure Ukrainian grain export from ports like Odessa, Chernomorsk, and Yuzhny, alongside a memorandum between Russia and the UN aimed at lifting restrictions on Russian agricultural products and fertilizers. Moscow contends that the latter aspect was inadequately executed, with no vessels carrying Russian fertilizers dispatched under the initiative. This prompted Russia to decline an extension of the agreement.

While Ukrainian officials expressed concerns that excluding Kiev from a future grain deal might embolden Russia's actions in occupied Ukrainian territories, they did not oppose the new trilateral format. However, the crux of the matter lies in the Kremlin's stipulations. The Russian Foreign Ministry outlined five systemic issues pivotal to the deal's extension, including integrating Rosselkhoznadzor with SWIFT, unfreezing foreign assets of Russian firms linked to food and fertilizer sectors, resuming agricultural machinery supplies, restoring the Tolyatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline, lifting insurance and reinsurance restrictions, and alleviating port access bans.

It appears that Putin has achieved some sanctions relief, although the scope remains uncertain. The initiation of substantive discussions among Turkey, Russia, and Qatar indicates a degree of mutual understanding between the United States, a significant player in the Ukrainian conflict, and Russia.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's statement on August 3 noted that, akin to other participants in the Black Sea Food Initiative, Russia could engage in agricultural product exports. In a conversation with Erdogan on the same day, Putin conveyed Russia's readiness to re-engage with the agreement once the West fulfills its obligations (preconditions – ed.).

As the negotiations in Hungary concluded, Erdogan expressed his intention to personally discuss the resumption of the "Black Sea Grain Initiative" with Putin in September, if circumstances permit. The potential Putin-Erdogan meeting could materialize in early September, prior to the opening of the 78th UN General Assembly session on September 5 and the G20 summit scheduled for September 9-10 in New Delhi. Evidently, the meeting holds the promise of positive news, potentially setting an optimistic tone for the ensuing forums.