"Poor-quality democracy”

In Turkey's recent crucial elections, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan did not achieve the victory he desired, despite being the country's most experienced politician and statesman. Erdoğan's party fell short of the required majority in the presidential election and once again relied on unconditional support from the Nationalist Movement Party. Winning the second round of the presidential election on May 28 is expected to be relatively easy for Erdoğan, while opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu would need a miracle to secure victory.

The elections highlighted the distinct characteristics of approximately half of the Turkish voters who have consistently supported Erdoğan over the past 21 years. These loyal voters have established a strong connection with their leader, understanding each other well. Erdoğan has made it a priority to address the needs of his poorest supporters in terms of food, clothing, and financial assistance, which has garnered adoration from the more than 12 million impoverished individuals. They view him as a prophet or even a deity. This unwavering loyalty and support strengthen Erdoğan's position before every election.

The AKP, under Erdoğan's leadership, successfully maintains consolidation within its voter base by using rhetoric that instills fear, warning them of potential deprivation of essential resources if the party loses power. The masses that form this devoted base, primarily focused on religious education rather than reading newspapers or engaging with other forms of media, view the AKP as their religion.

Erdoğan enters the second round of the presidential election on May 28 without any concerns, as long as he remains alive, while opposition leaders face an uphill battle. The reason for this lies in Erdoğan's ability to establish close religious ties with his supporters, who perceive him as the connecting link rather than solely relying on their faith in God and the Prophet. The opposition's fear of losing Erdoğan is akin to the concern that religious institutions may be closed if they assume power.

Since being elected mayor of Istanbul in 1994, Erdoğan has gradually built a network of wealthy individuals around him, ensuring their continued allegiance over the past 21 years. Except for the Koç family, many prominent figures in Turkish capitalism who initially supported the AKP faced bankruptcy or were forced to leave the country prior to the November 3, 2002 election, illustrating Erdoğan's control over those who had backed him. Through public tenders and privatizations, Erdoğan managed to create a wealthy group entirely beholden to him.

In contrast to their predecessors, Süleyman Demirel and Turgut Özal, who allowed wealthy individuals to prosper through public tenders without imposing control, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has successfully maintained authority over the affluent group he cultivated. This control has been a key factor in Erdoğan's long tenure in power. Furthermore, Erdoğan enjoyed financial support from this group in the recent May 14 elections.

In 2016, when Meral Akşener embarked on creating her party, I commented on President Erdoğan's hold over Turkey's economic and financial system, suggesting that he had metaphorically locked it away. I questioned the sources Akşener would rely on to finance her party. The election results on May 14 revealed that neither Akşener, who had aspirations of becoming prime minister, nor Kılıçdaroğlu, who aimed to become president, could unlock the financial system controlled by Erdoğan.

It is crucial to emphasize, as we have done before, that the May 14 elections took place in a democratic atmosphere. There should be no doubts about this fact. The significant difference of 40 parliamentary seats between the two blocs that secured representation exemplifies the functioning of democracy. The upcoming second round of the presidential election further highlights the effectiveness of the political system. These are all positive aspects for Turkey.

However, the sustained support for the ruling party without hesitation over the past 21 years raises important questions regarding the quality of the electorate and the future of Turkish democracy. The relationship between the AKP and its voters, based on the exchange of material benefits such as food, clothing, and financial support, allows Erdoğan to remain in power as long as he is alive. Yet, the long-term implications of these arrangements for the country's democratic future remain uncertain. One might even question whether this can be called a form of "low-quality democracy."