Azerbaijan’s Presidential Plane Faces GPS Disruptions Over Russia, Investigation Confirms

The Ministry of Digital Development and Transport of Azerbaijan has effectively acknowledged that President Ilham Aliyev’s official aircraft, “Baku-1,” encountered external technical interference while flying to St. Petersburg for the informal summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) on December 25. The revelation comes amid growing scrutiny of the incident, including reports of a GPS signal loss over Russian airspace.

The disclosure follows an independent report by Turan news agency on January 4, which stated that the presidential aircraft abruptly left Russian airspace and returned to Baku due to unforeseen radio-technical issues.

Specifically, Azerbaijan’s transport ministry highlighted that during flight AZAL J2-8243 through Russian airspace, including over Grozny Airport, the aircraft lost GPS signals. This indicates that the disruption was not confined to Chechnya but extended to other sections of Russian airspace where the aircraft was flying.

Connection to the AZAL J2-8243 Incident Near Aktau

The timing of the acknowledgment coincides with Azerbaijan’s response to the investigation of the crash of flight AZAL J2-8243 on December 25 near Aktau, Kazakhstan. Notably, both aircraft encountered similar technical issues, particularly the loss of GPS signals in Russian-controlled airspace. According to Azerbaijani sources, the commercial plane encountered “blinding” disruptions, rendering navigation and landing impossible at any airport in the North Caucasus, ultimately forcing it to divert to Kazakhstan.

Russia’s “Kover” Response Raises Questions

The situation is further complicated by reports that Russia’s air defense system was activated in the early hours of December 25. Azerbaijani sources claim that the AZAL plane was targeted by Russia’s Pantsir-S1 air defense system. Russian authorities reported that after the plane was struck, a response plan known as “Kover” was implemented at 05:21:42, banning civilian flights in the affected area. However, uncertainty remains regarding the operational scope of the protocol and whether Azerbaijani pilots were informed. There is no available information confirming that such a notification was issued.

If Russian aviation authorities indeed activated "Kover" in response to an aerial threat, it remains unclear why Azerbaijani flight crews were not informed. Given that the presidential plane likely departed from Baku after these events but still faced navigation issues in Russian airspace, speculation is growing that the interference extended beyond the immediate consequences of the AZAL incident.

Geopolitical Implications and Potential Risks

The events of December 25 have fueled speculation in Azerbaijan about the intentions behind these disruptions. Repeated GPS failures, particularly in Russian-controlled airspace, have raised concerns about the safety of Azerbaijani aircraft operating in the region. The incident over Astrakhan in early January, which also involved navigation issues, prompted Azerbaijani authorities to reconsider air routes to cities in southern Russia, effectively freezing flights to those destinations.

While no official accusations have been made against Moscow, the circumstances surrounding these aviation disruptions have sparked fears of deliberate interference. Analysts suggest that the incidents could be part of a broader geopolitical maneuver, especially given the recent tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia over regional affairs.

A Growing Rift?

Baku’s decision to disclose details of these disruptions marks an unusual departure from the typically measured diplomacy between Azerbaijan and Russia. While both governments maintain an official stance of strategic cooperation, these incidents could test the resilience of their relationship. If Azerbaijan perceives these disruptions as a direct threat to its sovereignty, it may prompt a reassessment of its security posture, including a potential shift in its regional alliances.

For now, Azerbaijani aviation authorities are demanding greater transparency regarding the events of December 25. It remains unclear whether Moscow will provide clarifications on the activation of its air defense system and the extent of the GPS interference. However, the broader implications of these incidents—both for Azerbaijan’s aviation security and its geopolitical standing—are likely to unfold in the coming months.