The situation in the northeast of Syria is more complicated than in the north-west

We have written wrote that the refusal of the Turkish army from a military operation in the northeastern region of Syria would be a miracle (October 3: "Army, let's go to the north-east of Syria!" (or not?). The approximate parameters of the action officially launched October 9 are known: moving deeper into Syria 30 km from the border, put an end to the autonomous power established in the region by the terrorist organization PYD / YPG.

Then Turkey, having received financial support from international organizations and Western countries led by the European Union, will build houses, split small towns for 2 million Syrian refugees of Arab origin and place about half of the refugees there.

The fact that on the eve of the operation at various levels, officials of Turkey"s oldest NATO ally, the United States, made statements of similarly different contents, although it brought some chaos to the situation, at the same time, clarified the emerging picture.

However, the statement made by the President of the United States a few days earlier (as in December last year) that American troops would leave Syria was regarded as "another betrayal of Kurdish interests by the West". Then Donald Trump"s subsequent speeches caused concern in Turkey: yes, the president of America, calling Tayyip Erdogan his "close friend", threatened to "destroy the Turkish economy."

Nevertheless, contrary to the "sanctioned" threats of Congress and the Senate, a series of Pentagon warnings, the situation became so clear that the demands that the United States decided to leave Syria (Trump announced this for the second time) made by Ankara became obvious:

1) Turkey should not come into contact with the PYD / YPG, which the US, which considers them its ally in Syria, supply countless modern conventional weapons;

2) Turkey should provide further detention in Syrian prisons, where there are about 2 thousand ISIS terrorists.

The fact that both of these conditions are very difficult for Ankara and that the ISIS problem will pose a threat to Turkey"s security no less than that posed by PYD / YPG is understandable for anyone who is able, keeping calm, to keep track of developments.

Yes, the situation in the northeast of Syria is much more complicated and harder than the situation in the north-west of the country. For both of its operations in that region, Turkey conducted with the consent of Russia and successfully completed.

At the same time, factors complicating the situation in northeast Syria are not limited to the conditions that the US is trying to dictate to Turkey, and threats to apply sanctions.

The fact is that Moscow, which, during Ankara"s military operations in northwestern Syria, deactivated S-400 missiles, has now reacted to Turkey"s action in the northeast by mentioning the "territorial integrity of Syria".

This is the most powerful card in the hands of the Kremlin, with the help of which it can put pressure on Ankara. In a telephone conversation with Tayyip Erdogan, Vladimir Putin called the operation "justified" (at least this follows from the statements of the Turkish Presidential Administration), and on the other hand, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov continually emphasizes the need to maintain "territorial integrity."

Tehran is playing the same game in the same form: President Rouhani speaks of "justice in conducting military operations against terrorism", and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif uncompromisingly insists on "the territorial integrity of Syria". However, what tactics does Turkey use when embarking on the third military campaign in Syria?

The same military-political-diplomatic tactics as in the first two operations. That is, she is trying to convince other states that ousting PYD / YPG terrorist groups from northeastern Syria will benefit the region and even the whole world.

President Erdogan"s team, who on Twitter announced the start of the operation, includes the same people: Minister of National Defense, Army General Hulusi Akar, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, and Presidential Spokesman Ibrahim Kalyn, that is, people who know the United States and NATO, and Europe.

The third military operation on Syrian soil once again confirmed that the current Turkish authorities do not intend to seek the ground for cooperation with official Damascus and will not do so in the near future.

Consequently, Ankara, very carefully, having weighed all the factors, developed the basis of its long-term Syrian policy. For the military operation "Source of Peace" officially launched on October 9 is a more important action in Turkish history than even the Cyprus operation of 1974.

In order to discuss the current situation in the region, Trump and Erdogan should meet in Washington on November 13. How will the operation of the "Source of Peace" operation affect the fate of this meeting?

Can it cause the cancellation of this summit?