Kauzlarich: Neither U.S. nor Israel would be in a position to protect Azerbaijan against Iran

Washington on Friday suggested that American airstrike responsible for killing Iran’s top general strike “was aimed at disrupting further aggression" and that "we hope, setting the conditions for de-escalation as well,” U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told repoeters.

"If Pompeo is serious about de-escalating the situation, then Baku may be in a position to provide a venue -- as it has done with US-Russia military to military contacts -- for US-Iranian disengagement talks," Richard Kauzlarich, former U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan, told TURAN's Washington D.C. correspondent.

In his first remarks on the U.S. killing of Iran’s Qasem Soleimani, President Donald Trump asserted the action was intended to avert a war, not start one. National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien also told journalists on a White House press call that if Tehran chooses to escalate, "that would be a very poor choice for the Iranian regime.” The alternate path, he said, would be for Iran to sit down with Trump, give up its nuclear program, stop its proxy wars in the Middle East, stop taking hostages, and behave like a normal nation. “In that case, Iran has a fabulous future.”

For Kauzlarich, it yet remains uncertain how much deep thinking went into the decision-making behind the latest incident. "Based on other Trump-instigated actions, I believe this was done based on his gut feeling at the time," he said.

Asked what implications might the incident have for Azerbaijan, Kauzlarich reminded that Baku "has prided itself on having good relations with both Iran and the US - and I would add Israel."

"If there is an escalation of the situation -- say Iran directs an attack against US or Israeli interests, it would be difficult for Azerbaijan not to be drawn into having to make a choice. Choosing the US (or Israeli) side would bring tremendous Iranian pressure to bear on Azerbaijan. Neither the U.S. nor Israel would be in a position to "protect" Azerbaijan against Iran."

"Under those conditions, I would expect Baku to look to Moscow for help, leaving Putin to be the winner in any such confrontation," he said.

A.Raufoglu

Washington D.C.