Sustainable peace in Karabakh will require cooperation of external players – ICG

Baku/23.12.20/Turan: The International Crisis Group (ICG) has published a report with ideas on strengthening peace in the region after the Second Karabakh War.

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During the fighting, Azerbaijan regained control over about one-third of the former NKAO and most of the seven adjacent regions occupied by Armenian forces a quarter of a century ago. The truce mediated by Russia consolidated the gains of Azerbaijan and outlined the contours of a new order in the South Caucasus. A month later, this ceasefire allowed the restoration process to begin. The main issues, including the problem underlying the conflict - the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, remain unresolved, the report says. “The recent hostilities and the agreement signed on the night of November 9 have irreversibly changed the reality in the South Caucasus. Today's balance is the exact opposite of the 1994 balance, when Armenia won and Azerbaijan lost,” ICG analysts say.

The likelihood of maintaining the current truce for decades will depend on the new order in the South Caucasus, which will stimulate coexistence, and not the continuation of enmity."  The new order cannot be built without an agreed way of moving forward for Nagorno-Karabakh, which means resolving the issue of the status of the territory. “But trying to solve this difficult problem now can easily backfire. On the contrary, the parties and parties to the conflict will benefit from a phased approach that focuses on meeting humanitarian needs and starting to build links that could eventually unify the region. As these ties emerge, the future of Nagorno-Karabakh may also become clearer,” the ICG believes.

Peace in the region also requires that it not become a pawn in other people's geostrategic games. “The leading role of Moscow and Ankara's participation in supporting Azerbaijan are poorly perceived by some in the West. Representatives of the United States and France are wary of a new precedent in the form of a Russian-Turkish alliance, which overshadowed the OSCE Minsk Group. In particular, EU High Representative Joseph Borrell warned Russia and Turkey to resolve regional conflicts without the EU, as they do in Nagorno-Karabakh, Syria and Libya, the report says.

“A sustainable world will require Russia, Turkey and Western countries, as well as international institutions, to engage and cooperate rather than compete,” says the ICG study. —16B06-