U.S. intelligence: U.S. dominance in 2030 to remain

The U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), which brings together representatives of 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, presented in Washington an analytical report "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds." It is assumed that by 2030 the world will be threatened by overpopulation, lack of water and reducing the role of the U.S. in world affairs.

This study gives estimates and scenarios of international relations for the next 20 years. Studying the future, analysts from CIA, Pentagon, National Security Agency and other U.S. institutions identified "global trends" of the situation in the world, the "mega-trends" that will affect the trajectory of global development, as well as "key factors" that determine the course of events, passes Rg.ru citing Reuters.

The National Intelligence Council estimated that by 2030 the world population will be 8.3 billion people - 1.2 billion more than today. In this regard, in 15-20 years, the world will intensify such demographic trends such as urbanization and migration.

Against the background of the progress in the development of health technology life expectancy will increase, contributing to the aging of the population, especially in developed countries. By 2030, there will be a 35% increase in demand for food and nearly 50% for water and energy.

At the same time, in the next decade, the so-called shale revolution in the United States will finally save America from energy dependence and help to fully align the U.S. trade balance, which is now heavily skewed in favor of imports, mostly of Chinese products. New technologies to increase hydrocarbon production will undermine OPEC's control over the prices for "black gold." "This could lead to a collapse in oil prices and a strong negative effect on the economy, dependent on oil and gas," the NIC report says.

Development of information technology will continue to have an enormous impact on the growth of economic productivity and quality of life in the world. At the same time, social networks and cyber security will be much more dynamic markets of the world economy.

According to the report, by 2030, China will be the largest economy in the world, and Europe, Japan and Russia will continue to experience a relative decline and their strategic role will be reduced. Economies such as China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, and Nigeria will steadily increase its share in the world. By 2030, Asia in economic and military power will surpass Europe and North America.

U.S. will overcome the dependence on energy imports and turn to energy exporter. Future conflicts in Asia and the Middle East may well have a "nuclear element."

Pax Americana - the era of American dominance in the world, which began in 1945, quickly ends. However, the U.S. will maintain a central role in world politics because it is the only country capable of mobilizing coalitions to address global problems.

Regarding Russia, the report of U.S. intelligence includes rather pessimistic assessments - by 2030, Russia's population will decline by 10 million, which will be the largest demographic decline in the world and will lead to a labor force shortage.

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