What can Azerbaijan expect from Russia's recognition of the "DPR" and "LPR"?

Baku/22.02.22/Turan: The Kremlin's recognition of the separatist entities in Donetsk and Lugansk is the most serious blow to Ukrainian sovereignty since the occupation of Crimea.

In so doing, Moscow dared to seize two regions of a neighboring state even despite the most serious warnings from the West.

In fact, Moscow once again confirms that the world order that emerged after World War II no longer exists and that the generally accepted principles of international law are no longer valid. Everything is determined by the interests of the Big Powers. While accusing the US and the West in general of violating these principles, Russia is doing the same thing.

The negative consequences of this policy will inevitably hit Russia itself. First of all, on the issue of NATO presence near Russia's borders. We should expect the deployment of NATO offensive weapons and troops in Eastern Europe and in Ukraine itself, as well as in Moldova and, in the long term, in Georgia.  

The very ballistic and supersonic missiles that "scare" Putin so much may appear within 10-15 minutes of approaching Moscow.

Another problem is the destruction of the so-called Russian world or Slavic Union.

The rapprochement with China has the character of an anti-American bloc, nothing more.  Also, the presence in Syria is a kind of military training ground to be closed with the departure of President Assad.

When it comes to all other neighbors, Russia has become a clear or potential threat. Any "friendly" country can become an undesirable neighbor.

The ruling Russian elite has two principles which are shared by no small part of society as a whole: 1) There should not be a Western military presence represented by NATO on Russia's borders; 2) There should be no anti-Russian regimes on Russia's borders.  It doesn't matter whether it is a monarchical, democratic or authoritarian regime, as long as it is not anti-Russian.

In considering the above, the largest country in the world has very few friends. In the CIS space there are practically only enemies: Baltic states (members of NATO and the European Union), Ukraine is an enemy, Georgia is an enemy, Moldova is an enemy, Armenia does not know itself, Central Asian countries are a potential threat of instability and a source of uncontrolled migration.

Paradoxically, Russia has the best relations with Azerbaijan.  However, the "paradox" is understandable. Azerbaijan's adherence to the two above-mentioned principles and opposition to the West automatically makes Baku and Moscow allies. This alliance is strengthened by the same anti-Western policy of Turkey.

This is the reason why in the case of Karabakh Putin states the need to respect the principle of territorial integrity with reference to the opinion of the world community. However, in the case of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, he acts in the exact opposite way.

For Azerbaijan, the events in Ukraine will also be a test. The treaty on alliance with Russia which is being signed in Moscow today, is a kind of analog of the Shusha Declaration. Azerbaijan gets a second strategic ally after Turkey. Having big friends does not only mean dividends, but also obligations, i.e. to consider the interests of friends and not to go against them. The negative side of such friendship is the negative attitude of the West, which can have rather painful consequences. -02B-