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What is the balance of forces after the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan and who is behind them?
Baku/03.09.21/Turan: The topic of the change of power in Afghanistan and the departure of the West from this country is the most relevant topic of the last two weeks. Analysts go on hunting down questions: how and why this happened and what will happen next.
An informed source who served in Afghanistan told the Turan news agency that the Taliban are a product of Pakistan. It was Islamabad that gave birth and supported this movement from the very beginning. Pakistan's interest was to oppose the United States. When asked what Islamabad is displeased with in the US policy, the source noted that there are two reasons for this. The first is that the US did not support Pakistan in the conflict with India. The second reason is that Pakistan is an ally of China with which the United States is at enmity.
"Earlier 2000s, the United States imposed sanctions against Pakistan that have not been lifted until now. This greatly irritated Islamabad and forced it to look for other allies. China was happy about this and provided military and economic assistance. In turn, Pakistan has established military cooperation with a number of European countries purchasing weapons there. In particular, France has built two submarines for Pakistan.
At the same time, Pakistan collaborated with Iran and Turkey securing their firm support on many issues," the source said.
As for Afghanistan itself, the failure of US policy lies in the fact that the country's population traditionally perceives any foreign forces as occupiers. This is the opinion and mood of the absolute majority, that's why the Taliban faced no serious resistance.
As for the Northern Alliance which unites ethnic Uzbeks and Tajiks, they will not hold the Panjer Gorge, to be exact, the power in this region of Afghanistan. "These forces are in no position to offer serious resistance to the Taliban forces who have inherited a huge amount of weapons and equipment from the United States," the source said.
As for the prospects of the Taliban government, in the near future we should expect serious financial injections into Afghanistan from China. Beijing is, first of all, interested in developing natural resources and improving communications within the framework of the "One Belt, One Road" project connecting China and the markets of Europe.
The second serious player is Turkey which is expected to enhance other sectors of the Afghan economy. As for Iran, the Taliban have already stated that they want to build a state system resembling of the Iranian one. Finally, another important player is Qatar which for many years served as the headquarters of the Taliban and provided them with financial support.
"To sum up, we can say that a geopolitical redistribution is taking place in the Middle East region whose consequences are still difficult to predict; however, there is no doubt that the consequences can be quite serious," the source said.
As for the claims that the Taliban will go to Central Asia, this is possible only if Tajikistan and Uzbekistan support armed groups of ethnic Uzbeks and Tajiks in Afghanistan itself, according the same expert who wished to remain anonymous. - 02B
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