Could a war really start?

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- The call-up of service members in the reserve has been lasting for several days in Azerbaijan. What is happening?

- After the July events in Azerbaijan, a plan of voluntary mobilization of the population began. It was a well-thought-out plan for the state. Because 4-5 years ago, the state amended the Regulations on the involvement of reserve service members in preparatory exercises. The government wanted, in some form, to develop a system for attracting reserve soldiers to training. In Israel, reserve soldiers are involved in exercises 3-4 times a year. It looks like the Azerbaijani government is also trying to create a system that works in Israel.

The call-up of reservists, of course, may not take place because of the fear of the Azerbaijani side that "the war will begin!" or preparing for it. As I said, this means the realization of the government's desire to involve in the training of military personnel in the reserve. That is, if today someone is called from home, from work to the military commissariat, it means that they are checking their readiness; this does not mean that preparations for war are underway. This, as I mentioned above, is one of the components of the trainings. It seems to me that from now on, such cases will be frequent.

Perhaps, several times a year for 1-2 weeks, the reservists can be called-up for exercises. Restrictions may be imposed on their departure from the country by agreement. All this has already been tested in some countries, and I am sure that we are preparing for such testing.

- This step coincided with a rather interesting period. The call-up happened at a time of exacerbation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, after the air force of Azerbaijan shot down a drone belonging to the Armenian army (UAV), as well as after the interview of the President of Azerbaijan with local channels and on the eve of the President's speech at the UN session. Military exercises organized by Russia are also being held in the Caspian Sea. Are these events connected to each other, or is it a coincidence?

-The aggravation of the situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani state border has created conditions for the intensification of many processes. In particular, the  joint military exercises by Turkey and Azerbaijan, the attraction of reserve servicemen in Azerbaijan to the exercises, the inventory of material resources, mainly the technical base of Azerbaijan, show that the Azerbaijani government is concerned about what is happening on the border with Armenia. Now even a list of pickups is being compiled.

 At one time, we proposed to the government to inspect the basements of buildings in all districts and cities, along the front line. These basements should be transferred to the control of civil defense structures. In case of any danger, the population can take refuge in these basements. All this took place in Soviet times, regardless of whether there was a war or not. Now, when the situation is tense, the government has begun to do all this. The population is also concerned. However, for years we have been talking about this to the government. That is, the resettlement of the population from places of residence is not an option when something starts to happen. This was done in the 90s, and we saw the result. If the population does not join the battle, it is unlikely that these territories will be able to be preserved, nor will the regions.

All your questions are interrelated. This is unconditional. On the other hand, as I said, the July events accelerated the processes you mentioned. After the July events, the government actually understood where Armenia's weak point was. Now our government has no idea of ​​retreating. Knowing as much as possible the weak points of Armenia, the authorities are trying to hit them. The President's speech at the UN, a harsh statement in an interview with local television with a war-mindedness are an integral part of the lesson taught to Armenia.

-This form of call-up is for the first time in Azerbaijan, and this formed the opinion among people that the war is close. How realistic is the desire of the Azerbaijani and Armenian sides to start a war in the current conditions? Could any of these countries start a war right now?

-In fact, for the first time, the government of Azerbaijan in such a massive form is carrying out the process of involving reserve service members in training. Urgent military service in Azerbaijan has existed for many years - and MAXE is actually something similar. This means completing paid military service. This intensity of the conscription gave people the impression that a war could start. Especially in such a tense situation.

However, the Armenian side is in no hurry to start a war and does not even show interest, despite the constant provocations against us. It is not profitable for Armenia to start currently a war within its borders. Mostly from an economic point of view. The world is now busy with other issues. The Azerbaijani side can take advantage of this short-term turmoil and, at least, put serious pressure on Armenia. Therefore, the Armenian side does not seem interested. Azerbaijan is interested in speeding up the settlement of the conflict.

Azerbaijan is also not interested in tension on the borders with Armenia. Whatever happens on the border with Armenia is the fault of Armenia itself, its problems. Azerbaijan is interested in directly influencing the Karabakh conflict; this is the contact line, that is, the front line. If tomorrow Azerbaijan attacks from Aghdam, Fizuli or Tartar, that is, if there is a confrontation between the troops, there will be a war; then here the Azerbaijani side can become an interested and guilty party. Azerbaijan wants to see some progress in the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

- Recently, especially after the confrontation in the Tovuz direction, the tension between the two countries has increased even more. Both countries are showing strength and at the same time delivering confrontational messages. For example, Pashinyan's participation in the opening of a bridge on the Jidir plain, where his wife is posing in military uniform with a machine gun. What do the countries want to say by this? Is this all a bluff or something serious?

- Even the Russian Foreign Ministry has very openly stated that Armenia is the main reason for this confrontation and tension in Tovuz. As I said, Armenia is guilty and interested in everything that happens on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border. Because Armenia wants to involve Azerbaijan in a provocation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. That is, to divert attention, trying to show how aggressive Azerbaijan is, it even wants, after postponing the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, to silence Armenia, to wipe it off the face of the earth.

Armenia can arrange any provocation in this region. Therefore, the demonstration of force, the thoughtless steps of Pashinyan, his trip to the Jidir plain and other steps are an integral part of the provocation. By these steps, he is trying to prevent attempts to resolve the conflict. Azerbaijan is interested in the conflict being quickly resolved, Armenia is interested in the conflict resolution being dragged out even more. There will be an end, and it will be too late.

The US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on the Independence Day of Armenia that they should return to substantive negotiations. This is such a slap in the face for the country that it is simply impossible to avoid negotiations. After that appeared an information that the Armenian side had declared that, it was ready for negotiations. Negotiations can be evaded, but they cannot be avoided. The end of the avoidance of negotiations is war. Azerbaijan, as you can see, is demonstrating its readiness for war. Armenia has no way out.

- What is the attitude of Russia and the West to everything that happens? Do they agree with everything that happens, even in the event of a war?

- If both Azerbaijan and Armenia see a solution in the war or want to start a war, they are unlikely to agree on this with someone. Neither the West nor Russia will allow a war to start in the current or subsequent period without the presence of serious results of the negotiation process. I am pessimistic about this. They will not allow it. Of course, Azerbaijan's demand for the return of its territories even through war is inevitable. The occupation of the territory of Azerbaijan, in particular, 7 regions that do not belong to Nagorno-Karabakh, which the Armenians call a buffer zone, is already irritating the West, the United States and even Russia itself.

They want Armenia, even having received the desired result, to show softness in the issue of returning these seven regions, so that Azerbaijan would not be offended because of this process. Therefore, even if no one agrees to the war, if someone cheats in the settlement of the conflict, then he can be punished. This fraud can manifest itself in both negotiation evasion and annexation. Russia is a great state. Neither Azerbaijan nor Armenia can be Russia. Even if they could not close their eyes to the annexation of Russia, no one will allow Armenia to annex unilaterally the legal territory of Azerbaijan recognized by the UN. If Azerbaijan and Armenia go beyond the line established by the world, create tension in the region, they both can be punished. As I said, annexation is not possible. In this respect, Azerbaijan's restraint will not worsen its position.

- In your opinion, how can it end? Will the occupied Azerbaijani lands be liberated? In what form will they be released? What option is possible for this?

- Recent days have shown us that the Azerbaijani government every time shows its interest in the settlement of the conflict. In all his speeches, the Azerbaijani President emphasizes the fact of occupation, even if his image in the international arena is being damaged. Calls on Armenia to end this occupation. Recently, the government wants society to have a certain preparedness for war. This indicates that the government is interested in the liberation of the territories. Both people and society want to prepare for this.

The government also wants to prepare its material and technical base. Unfortunately, society does not take seriously the recent events. If the government takes the issue of war seriously and can convince the public of the possibility of war, society will not live by the rules by which it lives now. I do not believe that war is a positive decision, with a positive outlook, but everything can be. If a decision is made, the society will be prepared for this. Despite the fact that jingoistic patriots all day shout about the homeland, land, write about it, is our society ready for this today? The reaction of recent days shows that society needs to be prepared for this. It is very difficult to mobilize and lead society to a process called war.