Georgia will not give up the drift towards the West

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-What is happening in Georgia?

- As in every society, there are factors in Georgia that cause tension. In the time of Saakashvili Georgian society has significantly improved. But, at the same time, certain socio-political, economic problems remained unresolved. Through the fault of Saakashvili he was able to overthrow him. Then, for some time, the ruling party, the Georgian Dream, became the ruling party. Closer to the end it broke up; again won; justified. Both the Prime Minister and the President were people recommended by Bidzina Ivanishvili. At one time they worked in his organization and obeyed him. After resigning as prime minister, Bidzina started doing business in Georgia. And as he was doing business openly, he became very rich, greatly increased. I decided that it was time to return to politics again. He again becomes chairman of the ruling party and again wants to run for president. And Margvelashvili says that he will also go to the polls. Now I will give you an example. What was the main reason for the events in Armenia? Did they really have such a great democratic potential?

By no means! There was a split in the ruling clan. It came to the point that the Karabakh clan told S. Sargsyan: "Enough, you've been stealing for 10 years now, step aside, give way to another!" And he did not even think about leaving. Therefore, Pashinyan was given a green light. And in the end he became prime minister. But this does not mean that Pashinyan will remain in this position. There is someone who manages from behind the scenes, who pulls the strings. And he is waiting for the conditions to mature. So it was in Azerbaijan. The Popular Front first survived Vezirov, and then Mutallibov, and he himself took power. The chief conductor waited patiently in the shade. And when the conditions matured, he himself came and took power and for a long time ruled. I think that this will be the case in Armenia. The current protests in Georgia have objective reasons. Georgia is a country open to tourism. For tourists all conditions are created. It became known that in several famous Georgian clubs heavy drugs are sold, from which several people died. And the police in these clubs conducted, and quite roughly, an operation against the drug trade.

A significant number of people were with their hands tied out of the clubs on the street. Subsequently, they rose to protest. And the ruling class considered it necessary to take advantage of this opportunity. Therefore, the protesters began to put forward political slogans. And the people saw that no one was hindering them. Apparently, there are still people in the ruling class who suspended the mechanism of punishment. Now they demand that the Prime Minister, the Minister of Internal Affairs, resign. And all this takes place on the eve of the elections. Therefore, I consider this a form of political struggle. And I regard it as a manifestation of a split in the ruling class, as it was in Armenia.

- Protest rallies broke out first in Armenia, and then in Georgia. Do you think that these events happened one after another, by accident, or is there any connection?

-Actually, these are the phenomena of one strand. In the ruling class there is a split, they cannot agree. They want someone to "leave". But this person does not want to leave. That's when a political technology method is used, such as a popular protest, a people's procession. Do you think that the Popular Front, speaking for you, wanted democracy, Karabakh? We came crying out "Karabakh! Karabakh! ", Overthrew the Karabakh clan, then threw off the Shirvan-Baku clan. Then a clan of natives from Nakhchivan and Armenia came to power. And are still in power. About Karabakh, democracy is not even remembered. And some, having received their share, settled comfortably in the parliament. Everyone gets pay, wherever he can. And now in these processes the main essence is to gloss over the struggle for the sake of economic interest, for the sake of political power. So, we detained some drug dealer. And because of this they demand that the Minister of Internal Affairs resign. And what if he leaves, the one who comes to replace him, will work better? Perhaps the new minister will work even worse than before. But they still demand: let him go, he must leave because he sits at the feeding trough, in a profitable place. Let the prime minister also leave, since he manages the economy of Georgia.

Now the protesters shout slogans or from doing nothing or because they were paid for it. Do you think those people who shouted at the Freedom Square in Azerbaijan "Democracy! Freedom! " had the notion of democracy, of freedom? No, they did not! They confused freedom with anarchy. Many people thought that now everyone would go and assume the post of an official and fill the pocket with money. Although for a short time, but it happened. Then the master came and dispersed everyone. And in Georgia the main struggle is fought for economic interests. Compared with Azerbaijan and Armenia, Georgia is much more democratic. Freedom of expression, the necessary conditions for the free activity of parties, freedom of speech, and, quite unlikely, are conducted, but, in comparison with some countries, very democratic elections. But some extreme degrees of freedom led to the fact that both the ruling party and the opposition Saakashvili party split. Now there are numerous factions, none of which alone can take power and govern. In addition, in Georgia, of course, there are economic problems, unemployment, a low standard of living. True, in many areas the issues of democracy, the rule of law are solved. At the same time, the country does not have large resources. In addition, Russia's pressure is increasing. In the Georgian society there are also such subjects who, for the sake of economic interests, are ready to rapprochement with Russia, forgetting the suffering and injustice caused by it. There are several parties that openly work for Russia. Well-known social and political figures are in favor of normalizing relations with Russia. Because they failed to get what they expected from the West. And their expectations were too high, unrealistic.

- There were serious reasons for protests in Armenia. However, in Georgia, the reasons for protest protests do not seem serious. How do you think this is a manifestation of the accumulated energy, dissatisfaction with the authorities, or are they acting on the principle of "keep up with your neighbor"? And can there be any outside interference, do you think?

- In such weak, dependent countries as Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia, great powers and big power centers have always tried to use any internal processes. Saakashvili came to power in Georgia. He was not such a political giant as Shevardnadze. But how did he succeed in overthrowing the latter? The chairman of the Security Council of Russia, after arriving in Tbilisi, warned Shevardnadze against using force. Or, right now, during the recent events in Yerevan, could not Serge Sargsyan shoot 5-10 people like in 2008? But he asked his surroundings whether to shoot or not? He was told: "No, do not shoot!". He understood, and left. That is, his inner circle forced him to leave. Now the case in Georgia has not yet reached the shooting. But if the division of power begins seriously, the distribution of posts, then there will also start shooting. Or, even if Ivanishvili himself is going to claim power, his team will say, "Thank you, you brought us to power, and he himself made a fortune, he was the owner of Georgia for several years, and now go on vacation, go and do your business ".

- May be someone would like to take advantage of this situation? For example, how will Russia or the West try to exploit this situation?

- Russia, methodically using its economic power, is gradually strengthening its positions in Georgia. This does not mean that Russia will change the pro-Western orientation of Georgia, that Georgia will refuse to drift towards the West. But, in any case, the attitude towards Russia, after all, has changed significantly. Georgians, Azeris and Armenians are still lucky that Russia continues to weaken, erode. This is our advantage. On the other hand, our trouble is that we have a low-quality national elite. In Azerbaijan and Armenia it is useless, in Georgia it is somewhat better. In Georgia, though they strive for enrichment, they also take care of the Motherland. In Armenia, in Azerbaijan they do not think about the Motherland.

- Nobody predicted in advance that these events will begin in Georgia. Can these processes that have flared up in the region one after another spread to Azerbaijan? Some expect it.

- To be honest, I do not have such close ties at the top. My relationship with them is not important. Therefore, I have little information. However, in the context of the general picture, I can say that the ruling class has cracked. Even before the presidential elections. Now it is a bit shaded. If the First Lady came forward, I am sure that the Nakhchivan clan would give a fatwa (permission) to the traditional opposition, finance it, neutralize the punitive mechanism, and they would have roared with an outburst. Since the First Lady did not come forward, but Ilham Aliyev himself advanced, the Nakhchivan clan relieved from the heart, say, "the first, second, third ... the fifteenth person is ours." "Nothing, let one person be from another clan." And they calmed down a little. Therefore, I think that there is no clear reason why people should rebel. But if we recall the presidential elections of 2013, then Russia wanted something from us, and in the end we were forced to give what she needed. However, this time Ilham Aliyev held elections early and, in spite of Putin's expectations, was quickly elected president. I am sure that in all post-Soviet countries, including in Azerbaijan there is a spy network of Russia. Just press the button, they immediately rebel. And the ruling class is not able to foresee events at all. They are so greedy that they do not even understand that if they spend 5 manats instead of 10 manats for a year, they will receive an additional profit for 10 years. They loot Azerbaijan along and across. This is their weakest feature. Therefore, in such countries, external forces, if they want, can overthrow the system. But I do not see the preconditions for Azerbaijan to offend some external forces.

-Currently the possibility of such protests in Azerbaijan is not predicted, is it? In other words, ordinary people, the population, citizens, even if they want, cannot make such protests?

- No. Ordinary people have neither insight, nor opportunity, nor the corresponding organizational skills. And the opposition is trailing behind the scenes as a half-dead shadow. They cannot think logically, they do not have the intelligence to gain strength, gain authority. As for the revival, I would like to recall that when in 2004 an orange revolution took place in Kiev, our men wore orange shirts and ties. Did it help? Have you come to power? No. And in different other cases, they always get animated that maybe they will return. No, they will not.

- How can the current processes in Georgia end?

- Georgia has already accumulated a certain positive democratic potential. It's not Azerbaijan or Armenia. I am sure that these contradictions will find their solution in a democratic way. Without shooting, without casualties. They will find some middle line and move forward again. They will again follow the path of democracy. They will go to the West, and try to settle with Russia. True, they have the intelligence to use instructions, tourism, the Russian economy. But I do not think that they will return to the Russian market.