Political scientist assesses "Democratic reforms by Tokayev"

On September 1, President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev delivered a lengthy speech during a joint meeting of both houses of the country's parliament, which became the beginning of changes in the political and economic structure of Kazakhstan.  Tokayev proclaimed the need to reduce state participation in the country's economy, adopt new Tax and Budget Codes, partial amnesty for participants in mass protests in January 2022, crediting children's accounts with money from the state budget, the importance of teaching the Russian language in schools, etc. .

The president's message is very broad and covers all spheres of the social and state structure of Kazakhstan. The most discussed points of his a speech are proposals for the introduction of one seven-year presidential term and the holding early presidential elections in the fall of 2022, and parliamentary elections in the spring of 2023.

"The construction of a Fair Kazakhstan is just beginning. There is a thorny path ahead. This course is unshakable and will be continued under any circumstances of an internal and external nature," Tokaev announced.

In Azerbaijan, The proposals of Tokayev are being interpreted in Azerbaijan; some  people present him as a founder of democracy in the Turkic states, since the country's leader refuses the constitutional possibility of lifelong rule. Among the Turkic states in the post-Soviet space, real presidential elections are held only in Kyrgyzstan, and a new politician comes to power the country.

Dosym Satpayev, Kazakhstani political scientist, head of the Risk Assessment Group answered Turan's questions about the content and meaning of President Kassym Zhomart Tokayev's latest message to the people.

- What was the reason for making fundamental changes proposed by  Tokayev? In other Turkic post-Soviet republics, presidents have the opportunity to rule for life, declare the success of their rule and do not carry out such categorical reforms. Did the mass discontent of the Kazakh people and the deployment of the CSTO troops on January 7, 2022, influence Tokayev’s decision?

- Tokayev cannot now declare his lifelong presidency because after the January events in Kazakhstan, when there were mass protests, there were many promises of political reforms. By talking about a lifelong presidency, Tokayev can heavily discretize himself. Therefore, he announced early presidential elections, the introduction of a seven-year, one-term presidential term. Now the president of Kazakhstan is elected for five years. Other reasons are socio-economic processes, rising prices, devaluation of the national currency. The war in Ukraine hit the Kazakh economy because many representatives of our business are connected with Russia, transport logistics routes go through the Russian Federation, a strong Russian ruble affects the currency of Kazakhstan, imports become more expensive, there is a shortage of products, inflation is growing, which can lead to an increase in social tension in Kazakhstan. Therefore, Tokayev and his entourage decided to hold elections now, when the situation is still under their control.

The second reason for the early elections is related to the fact that Tokayev and his entourage fear that holding presidential and parliamentary elections later, in 2024 and 2025, will give time for groups seeking revenge to appear inside power, to strike at Tokayev, to play their game using the electorate. Therefore, the authorities went ahead of the curve in order to prevent opponents from preparing.

Well, the third fact is geopolitical, caused by the war in Ukraine and created by problems of a political and economic nature.

- What is the reason for fundamental changes proposed by  Tokayev? In other Turkic post-Soviet republics, presidents have the opportunity to rule for life, declare the success of their rule and do not carry out such categorical reforms. Did the mass discontent of the Kazakh people and the deployment of the CSTO troops on January 7, 2022, influence Tokayev’s decision?

-  Now, Tokayev cannot declare his lifelong presidency because after the mass protests  in January in Kazakhstan, there were many promises of political reforms. By talking about a lifelong presidency, Tokayev can heavily discretize himself. Therefore, he announced early presidential elections, the introduction of a seven-year, one-term presidential term. Now the president of Kazakhstan is elected for five years. Other reasons are socio-economic processes, rising prices, devaluation of the national currency. The war in Ukraine hit the Kazakh economy because many representatives of our business are connected with Russia, transport logistics routes go through the Russian Federation, a strong Russian ruble affects the currency of Kazakhstan, imports become more expensive. A shortage of products and growing inflation can  cause an increase in social tension in Kazakhstan. Therefore, Tokayev and his entourage decided to hold elections now, when the situation is still under their control.

The second reason for the early elections is the fact that Tokayev and his entourage fear  to hold presidential and parliamentary elections later, in 2024 and 2025,  because  groups seeking revenge  may appear  inside power, to strike at Tokayev, to play their game using the electorate. Therefore, the authorities go ahead in order to prevent opponents from preparing.

Well, the third fact is geopolitical, caused by the war in Ukraine and created by problems of a political and economic nature.

- Tokayev’s proposal on new Tax and Budget Codes  is interesting. Is not it possible to  make changes to these Codes without adopting new ones?

- The message emphasized the need for differentiated taxation, including a luxury tax. This topic has been  discussed in Kazakhstan for 15 years. You are right, that the introduction of new Codes is strange, since a new Tax Code was recently adopted in the country. Businessmen have to restructure their work. Legal stability is important for any business. There should be continuity and stability of tax legislation,  and it has not been in Kazakhstan since the time  when Nazarbayev was in power. This also applies to the stability of the state apparatus, so that there are no frequent personnel changes and governments.

Tax reform should be carried out with the participation of business, so that the Code works for the whole country, and not for the oligarchs. The code should work in such a way that taxes do not stifle small and medium-sized businesses, creating obstacles for oligarchic capital. I think that business will support tax reforms, but where are the guarantees that our government will not decide to introduce additional tax innovations again. This will again disrupt the stability of the business.

- In Tokayev's message I drew attention to the point on maintaining the teaching of the Russian language in schools. Does this mean the preservation of the position of the Russian language in the state structure of Kazakhstan, where Russian is adopted as the second state language, while multinational Georgia and Azerbaijan have one state language? Is this part of the president's message focused on serving the interests of Russia?

- Indeed, Tokayev's message in  September focuses on language policy. Most likely,  it was a response to the information attack of Russian propagandists against Kazakhstan. They talk about the intention to ban the Russian language in Kazakhstan, there are fakes about the ban on teaching the Russian language. This is nonsense, but the attacks are going on, and actively. Therefore, President Tokayev explained that citizens in school and university education can choose the language of instruction. In the first grade, in Kazakh schools, children will learn the Kazakh language, teaching the Russian language is introduced in the second grade,  and later – the English language. In Russian-speaking schools, the Kazakh language is introduced from the second grade.

This statement was made as a response to an information attack from Russia, from the increased number of "experts on Kazakhstan and Central Asia." This is the answer to Putin.

You are right that over the 30 years of independence of Kazakhstan, we could actively use the Kazakh language in all spheres if teaching in the Kazakh language was introduced starting from kindergartens. All kindergartens should be in the Kazakh language. Then 20% of citizens of other ethnic groups would speak Kazakh. This issue has been launched, we need to deal with it.

There is an objective demographic positive process. Over 70% of the population is Kazakh-speaking youth. The use of the Kazakh language is growing in the country. The most popular films and  TV shows are in Kazakh, popular singers sing in Kazakh. I think the process will continue and after 20 years the Kazakh language will be the main language of communication in the country.

- Another interesting point in the message is about the transfer of funds to children's accounts. The President proposed "to deduct 50% of the annual investment income of the National Fund to special savings accounts for children until they reach the age of 18, without the right to early withdrawal. Upon reaching the age of majority, the accumulated amounts will be used to purchase housing and receive education." Why such an offer is made?  Cannot parents  ensure the development of children? I do not think that this is so because, in terms of the average salary, Kazakhstan is in second place after Russia.

- The President's September statement should be regarded as his election program.  There is a concept of justice, it is necessary to share with the people the income that the state receives from the sale of raw materials. The National Fund, called the Fund for Future Generations, was created a long time ago, under Nazarbayev, its activities are non-transparent, the funds are used to finance state programs.

In Kazakhstan, not everyone can afford to educate their children. We have only 15-20% of the middle class, maybe less, mainly in Almaty, taxes are collected from small and medium-sized businesses. Other budget donors are oil and gas companies, mainly in western Kazakhstan, and businesses in the capital, Astana. Of the six million children, one million live in poor families. Therefore, the appearance of an educational voucher and the allocation of money from the National Fund for Youth was a long-standing demand of the people. In 2013, in my article "Gold of the Party", I suggested opening accounts at the expense of the National Fund in the name of newborn Kazakhstanis, so that by the age of 16-18 these people could buy housing, start a family, etc. So Tokayev has now reflected public expectations.

- Tokayev proposes to hold extraordinary presidential elections in the fall and switch to a one-time seven-year presidential term. What is the hidden meaning of Tokayev's proposal, or is he a democrat and decided to stop the actual practice of a lifetime presidency? Why does he go to early parliamentary elections in order to deprive deputies he dislikes of legislative powers?

- The statement about the introduction of one-time seven-year term is interesting, this is a kind of extension of Tokayev's power. He was elected three years ago (a little more), in two years his first five-year term would expire. Plus another five-year term, and under the current order, from 2024, Tokayev would rule for 10 years.

Now, let’s count  with  consideration  of the new changes. Since June 2019, Tokayev has been president, that is, for three years now. Let's add the next 7 years and again we get 10 years of Tokayev's presidential term. It turns out that  the difference is in holding early elections. This year Tokayev turns 69, it is not necessary that he will be able to work for seven years, anything can happen. The main thing is that Tokayev must create a system for the impossibility of an internal political, intra-elite conflict, as at the beginning of this year, when the country almost fell apart. He also needs to create a new economic system during his reign that would function normally after his departure.

- Why is Tokayev changing two Houses of parliament?

- Many people in Kazakhstan criticize the parliament, deputies, who, according to the people, were not elected. The current parliament was elected under President Nazarbayev. Holding early parliamentary elections allows Tokayev to "kill two birds with one stone": to reset the legislature, including new deputies loyal to him, and to remove the unpopular parliament.

Most of the current parliament belongs to the pro-presidential Amanat (formerly Nuratan) party, whom Tokayev wants to get rid of because they are people of Nazarbayev and his deputy Bauyrzhan Baibek. (Bauyrzhan Kydyrgaliuly Baibek - First Deputy Chairman of the Nur Otan Party. Akim of Almaty).

Tokayev stepped down from the leadership of this party. Most likely, Tokayev wants to purge the parliament, bring in deputies from parties loyal to him and formally independent deputies. Tokayev needs a stable and manageable parliament.

With the presidential elections, everything is clear, Tokayev will go to the polls and win, gaining more than 50% of the vote. Nazarbayev had 85-95% of the votes. I think Tokayev will show more than 50% of the votes, so as not to repeat Nazarbayev, and it was clear to the international community. The rest of the candidates serve as extras, a backdrop for the president.

With the winner, it is clear that he will not have serious competitors, including because of legal filters. A citizen who has worked in the public service for at least 5 years can become a presidential candidate. It also limits the possibility of serious competition in elections, a provision introduced under Nazarbayev. The results of the elections are predictable, if there are no surprises, for example, with the health of the president, etc.

Parliamentary elections are also predictable. Only at the end of this year new parties will appear and be registered in Kazakhstan. It is possible that opposition parties will show up to participate in the elections, and this is beneficial to the authorities. But only political forces with the support of the president will win.