Russian expert on the possibility of war between Turkey and Russia

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Question: How do you assess, in general, the political significance of the presence of Turkish troops in Syria? At first, Erdogan said that his army entered the border regions with Syria to protect Turkey from Kurdish terrorists. Now the Turkish army entered the Idlib province and yesterday's tragedy happened. Why is Erdogan right and wrong?

Answer: Initially, in 2013, Washington brought Washington into the Syrian war. We remember that Turkey resisted for a long time, but after an attempt was made to undermine its stability from the inside (at the expense of "ecologists"), it decided to go to this war, but also achieve its goals in the Syrian theme. Above all, to deal with the Kurds, creating a buffer zone along the entire southern border. Then, I recall, the topic of the Syrian war was not Russia, it appeared by the end of 2015. Therefore, the war with Russia has never been included in Turkish plans, and is not included now.

Russia does not need a real war, as opposed to a demonstration one. The real war, I emphasize this important point, is when at least a few combat aircraft from both sides get off daily. The Idlib zone as such is a consequence of the Syrian war of all recent years, and it was delineated as a zone of Turkish control, because of all negotiations on Syria, with the participation, first, of Russia, Turkey, and Iran. Therefore, Turkey still believes that it has the previously agreed rights to this province. However, Russia is not happy with the fact that from this territory there are regular attacks on both Russian bases and Syrian units. Russia and Turkey constantly discussed the problems of Idlib and the presence of terrorist units there, but they did not come to specifics, so the last aggravation happened. Turkey simply made it clear that it was necessary to solve this problem in a timely manner. Turkey itself perfectly understands what is happening.

Question: Different information about the origin of the aircraft that hit the Turks yesterday. Some write that Russian combat aircraft, others report aircraft of the Syrian army. It is clear that Assad’s army is completely supported by Russia. Can yesterday’s battle be considered the first clash of the armies of Turkey and Russia?

Answer: To whom it is beneficial, he writes so. Because the information war is really going on there, unlike the so far indirect clash of regular armies. Therefore, in general, we can say that the attacks were dealt by Syrian aviation. In any case, Turkey will have to be guided precisely by this given, whoever and no matter what he thinks in this regard.

Hence, this event cannot be considered "the first military clash between Russia and Turkey." Moreover, Turkey was, and remains a NATO country, and Russia is well aware of this. Russia does not make sense to get involved in new wars in Syria; its goal was to resolve politically the process. However, Russia, like Turkey, is trying to drag it into a real war, finally slamming the Syrian trap. One of the last steps the United States took on this path was the withdrawal of American units from Syria, in order to increase the contradictions between Russia and Turkey; and this, as we see, worked.

Question: Does yesterday’s event indicate that the strategic partnership of the RF-Tr is impossible due to strategic differences? It is impossible, and then what about the Turkish-Russian economic joint projects? Will they fold?

Answer: A strategic partnership between Russia and Turkey is not only possible: it has been demonstrated, with one way or another, over the past almost fifteen years. It just does not suit the United States, so it is not able to develop evenly. Russia, of course, had different options for resolving the Syrian issue, including at the expense of the Kurds, without introducing Russian units into Syria, and I spoke about this more than once in 2015. However, Russia decided to enter there herself, therefore, it automatically received a special set of problems. This factor exacerbates Russian-Turkish relations, since Erdogan will not love the pro-Russian Assad, and is ready to destroy him as soon as possible.

As for Russian-Turkish economic cooperation, it is also in constant motion, folding up and down. In the end, gas coming from Russia to Turkey is quite a serious argument for Turkey in favor of bilateral relations. Therefore, Turkey so far continues to balance in a difficult situation, between the USA and the Russian Federation. As much as possible in principle. If the President of the United States were not the exotic President Trump, then, quite possibly, Turkey would have been able to pit directly with Russia. However, for now, the presence of a strange Trump saves everyone.