Do We Need the Gabala Radar Station?

The war in Iran has exposed a number of serious security challenges that will remain at the center of attention for countries in the region in the coming years. This is the general view of several military experts who shared their assessments with Turan analysts.

“The drone attack on Nakhchivan on March 5 showed that the air defense system needs to be strengthened, despite the fact that it is the best in the entire South Caucasus,” said Colonel of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces Khatai Bakhyshev.

“We need new, more advanced air defense and missile defense systems, as well as specialists capable of operating them,” he noted. This does not mean that existing weapons and personnel are inadequate — rather, time does not stand still. Even Israel’s missile defense system proved unable to intercept all Iranian missiles and drones, Bakhyshev emphasized.

Another senior officer,  former  head of one of the departments of the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense, agreed with him. Speaking on condition of anonymity, he told Turan that the missile defense system must undoubtedly be strengthened.

“This does not mean that we do not have such a system or that it is ineffective. During the Second Karabakh War, we intercepted missiles from “Smerch” and “S-300” systems, as well as others. However, achieving a 100 percent interception rate is practically impossible. This has also been demonstrated by the current war in the Middle East, where even the most advanced systems have failed to deliver a perfect result,” the general said.

In his view, it is necessary to carefully study the experience of the war around Iran and draw appropriate conclusions. Particular attention should be paid to the training of specialists.

“The human factor is sometimes more important than the weapons systems themselves,” he stressed, highlighting the need for active cooperation with Ukraine.

“The war in Ukraine has shown that Ukrainians have made significant progress. Their experience in countering drones and missiles is currently among the most advanced in the world,” the officer added.

What Needs to Be Done

Air defense, and especially missile defense, is a multi-layered system. Protection against missile attacks begins with radar stations that detect missile launches hundreds and even thousands of kilometers away.

During the Soviet period, the Gabala radar station was built in Azerbaijan as part of the USSR’s strategic missile defense system. It was designed to detect early launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles from the southern direction toward the Soviet Union. If this radar were operational today, the launch of any missile — not only toward Azerbaijan but also toward Turkey and Central Asia — would be detected almost immediately.

In a conflict such as the war around Iran, the flight time of ballistic or other missiles to their targets ranges from several minutes to several hours, depending on the distance. Information from radar systems provides the critical time needed to intercept incoming missiles before they reach their targets.

According to military experts, Azerbaijan does possess certain relevant systems, but globally there is a continuous race between missile technologies and defensive systems.

The challenge is that all of this is extremely costly, making it difficult for Azerbaijan to address such issues on its own. According to Turan analysts, Azerbaijan and Turkey should consider establishing a joint missile defense system. In this context, it would be advisable to involve Ukraine, given Kyiv’s friendly relations with both Baku and Ankara, as well as its valuable practical experience.

Taking into account the growing threats from the southern direction and the geographic proximity to both countries, relevant radar systems and defense assets could be deployed in Nakhchivan.

The Ukrainian Experience

In the mid-1990s, a Ukrainian government delegation visited Baku and was received by the then president. The author of this article was present at the meeting, where issues of bilateral cooperation were discussed.

The first proposal voiced by the Ukrainian side concerned the Gabala radar station.

“Ukraine proposes that Azerbaijan jointly use this military facility,” said a member of the Ukrainian delegation.

This proposal was made at a time when the radar station was effectively inactive, Russian troops had been withdrawn from Azerbaijan, and Baku was seriously considering the complete dismantling of the facility.

Today, amid the ongoing war with Russia, Ukraine’s defense-industrial complex has managed to establish the production of advanced weapons systems, including anti-drone and missile defense technologies. While this progress has been supported by European countries and the United States, it would not have been possible without an existing industrial base and qualified specialists.

A decisive factor is that, since Soviet times, Ukraine has retained three key components: facilities for manufacturing missile components, production of rocket fuel and electronic systems, and a workforce of specialists across all these sectors.

In light of current geopolitical shifts, a military-political triangle of Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Ukraine could become a reality. In the future, security considerations may draw Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan into this framework as neighboring regional states.