Libya maneuvers

Russia's deep state began to play the game it played in Syria in Libya. The essence of the game is not to support one to the end. After strengthening to a certain stage, pull the rope, limit the support so that it becomes more dependent on you.

As dictator Bashar al-Assad went to Syria at the invitation of the UN Security Council to clear the country of radical terrorists, he did not allow Damascus to absolutely erect its posture.

The Kremlin is now playing the same game against Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar in Libya. Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, whom it had unconditionally supported since the beginning of 2016, was in control of all Libyan lands. Even when he ignored the Libya talks in Moscow, it seemed to everyone that he would enter Tripoli today or tomorrow. However, the Kremlin offered Haftar a "ceasefire" this time when the UN-recognized Fayez al-Sarraj army removed Field Marshal Haftar's troops from two key strategic points. The Wagner group of mercenaries has left the country completely.

Turkey has announced that the balance there has changed thanks to it through National Defense Minister Hulusi Akar. The media, which unconditionally supports the government, emphasizes that changing the balance in favor of official Tripoli is due to the great role of drones produced by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles owned by the co-in-law of President Erdoğan. (If the owner of the drone company were the children of opposition leader Kılıçdaroğlu, of course, it would not matter to the pro-media).

On the other hand, it was known that about 5,000 fighters of the Syrian National Army, which was supported by Turkey with the money of Qatar, were sent to help the official government of Tripoli earlier this year. So who changed the balance in favor of official Tripoli? How important was Turkey's support for official Tripoli in changing the balance? How could the fighters sent by Turkey force Haftar to withdraw from the region when Haftar was in such a superior position? Did the force sent from Syria come out stronger or did Russia stop supporting Haftar? If it stopped, why did it do: to prepare Haftar for a new attack or to send some of his forces in Syria to Libya? In other words, will Turkish and Russian military forces face each other in Libya after Syria?

The U.S. Africa Command, which has been silent on Libya for a long time, has shared satellite photos of Russian military planes flying from Syria to Libya. If so, it means that Russia has a serious plan to demonstrate its military weight there. So against whom?

If it demonstrates against Tripoli, it will see Turkey in front of it. In this case, another question will arise: is the conflict in Syria over, and the rivalry between Russia and Turkey has shifted to Libya? If Turkey went there before Russia, Did it go there by realizing and accepting that it would not be able to gain a military advantage in Syria after that? Has Libya been more attractive than Syria to Russia? Or did Ankara and Moscow actually send troops from Syria because they were secretly cooperating in Libya? And in this case, will Field Marshal Haftar, who has great military support from Russia, be left out of the game? What will be the fate of mercenaries? Will Turkey be able to strengthen its position in Libya as it wants? If this is achieved, will Mr. Erdoğan go to the polls early and transform Libya's victory into an election rating?

The processes in Libya have created such a chaotic picture that as it is not known whose hand came out of whose pocket, it is also dark whose hand will go into whose pocket.

The waters of the Mediterranean are warming from the east coast to the south coast...

Mayis Alizade