In Short Term, Increase in Non-oil Exports Unattainable - Rovshan Agayev

Foreign Trade Statistics in 2016 shows that in the short term goals of import substitution and increase in non-oil exports are out of reach, says economist Rovshan Agayev.

The expert noted that on the results of 2016 the reduction in the import amounted to approximately 700 million dollars (7.6%). The reduction in imports was mainly due to the public sector.

Import of cars reduced 4.5 times, from 23.8 thousand to 5 thousand.

The reduction in exports was even more - $ 2.3 billion (20%).

As a result, the surplus in foreign trade balance amounted to 610 million dollars.

"This is the lowest figure since 2007. In the years 2008-2014 each year the surplus in foreign trade was always above 10 billion dollars. Only in 2015, after a sharp drop in oil, this figure fell to 2.2 billion USD," Agayev said.

Non-oil exports were equal to 1.258 billion dollars and amounted to 13.7% of total exports. Compared with 2015 the volume of non-oil exports fell by 28%.

"For many years, it was possible to hold the manat thanks to a huge trade surplus. Large foreign exchange funds derived from exports covered the large deficit in the service balance and the financial account of the country. Currently, the reduction in the surplus of the trade balance caused the current account deficit and the overall balance of payments," Agayev said. 71D