KazTransOil reported that Kazakhstan Agency for Natural Monopolies Regulation has approved rise in oil export fees by 3.1% (up to 4,850.6 tenge per 1000 km) and local transportation fees by 50.9% (up to 2,931.8 tenge per 1000 km) from January 1, 2014, reported Kazakhstan Kapital.az portal.
Specialists of Halyk Finance investment bank, daughter company of National Bank of Kazakhstan, claim that difference between export and local rates, which constitute about 60% now, will remain. However, there is still a risk of equalization of rates in the future and returning to the level of 2012-2013. The experts do not believe that rise in tariffs will affect the entire trajectory of rates.
According to Halyk Finance’s base scenario, the average rate of tariffs will remain unchanged in 2016 and later. The specialists beleve that use of monopoly rates to suppress consumer inflation as an instrument of social policy has become insrtitutional long ago, which significantly affects policy pursued by the regulator.
This turned out to be a surprise, because in September the regulator has penalized the company for the failure to fulfill the investment program for 2012 by approving the compensation rates for 2014, Halyk Finance believes. It was a surprise that the increase mainly falls to the local rates and affects the consumer inflation. The government tries to use the monopoly regulation to manage the consumer inflation and it subsidized the local transportations at the expense of export for a long time.
Therefore, the analysts’ forecast of income and net profit of the company in 2014 has been increased by 11.2% and 28.8%, respectively. In 2014 and 2015 the forecast of dividends has been increased by 106 and 111 tenge per share, which envisages dividend profitability of 10.2% and 9.6%, respectively. The forecast of dividends for 2013 did not change and remained 106 tenge per share, which envisages dividend profitability of 12.3%, reported http://www.netrtrans.ru.--0---
Economics
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