Nikol Pashinyan on how Armenia lost 44-day war

Baku/20.06.23/Turan: On June 20, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan presented in detail his actions to achieve a ceasefire with Azerbaijan during a meeting of the commission to investigate the circumstances of the 44-day war.

In his detailed speech, Pashinyan explained why he signed the Trilateral Declaration and why the war ended on November 9. Pashinian emphasized the strategic importance of the fall of Shusha as saying that it was not only of symbolic significance but also posed a significant threat to Stepanakert (Khankendi-Edit.), Martouni and the estimated 25,000 soldiers who might have been encircled.

Pashinian acknowledged that the signing of the Trilateral Declaration marked the fifth attempt to end hostilities. He recalled the first attempt on 7 October, when he called Russian President Vladimir Putin to congratulate him on his birthday. During the conversation, Putin expressed his intention to mediate a ceasefire. Pashinian agreed, suggesting that the ceasefire should be unconditional. In subsequent discussions, however, Putin informed him that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev had rejected the proposal.

Further talks took place on 8 October, during which Putin informed Pashinyan that Azerbaijan had agreed to a ceasefire from 10 October. The Foreign Ministers of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia met in Moscow on 9 October to discuss the ceasefire and the exchange of prisoners and dead bodies. A statement was subsequently adopted announcing a humanitarian ceasefire from 10 October and the start of substantive negotiations.

Despite the agreement, Azerbaijan launched an offensive in various directions, including Stepanakert, Martakert and Hadrut. Pashinyan instructed diplomatic efforts to maintain the ceasefire while taking measures to counter the Azerbaijani army offensive. The possibility of deploying Russian military observers along the line of contact was considered, but Azerbaijan avoided making decisions on the issue.

Pashinian said he directly asked Russian President Putin on 13 October what steps he should take to stop the war. In subsequent discussions on 16 October, Putin suggested that he would start talking about the return of the five districts without clarifying Nagorno-Karabakh's status. Pashinian agreed to explore this idea and on 17 October French President Emmanuel Macron informed him that Aliyev had agreed to a ceasefire without preconditions. Pashinian accepted the proposal and a trilateral statement was agreed by France, Armenia and Azerbaijan with Russian support.

However, the ceasefire was not respected and Azerbaijan continued its military operations. On 19 October Pashinian had a telephone conversation with Putin, who proposed a plan based on earlier Russian initiatives. The conditions proposed included the return of seven regions, settlement of communications between Nagorny Karabakh and Armenia through the Lachin corridor, deployment of Russian peacekeepers in Nagorny Karabakh and the uncertain status of Nagorny Karabakh.

Pashinian had intended to accept Putin's proposal, but Azerbaijan put forward additional demands, including the return of Azerbaijani residents to Shusha and the deployment of peacekeepers in Meghri to ensure communications between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan. Pashinian did not agree to these conditions, in particular the extraterritorial corridor through Armenia, but acknowledged the gravity of the situation. He stressed that he could not agree to such conditions and called for support from others who felt they could, to publicly express their position.

On 23 October a US ceasefire initiative emerged, which was agreed on 25 October, with a ceasefire scheduled to begin on 26 October. Azerbaijan, however, did not join the agreement. Pashinyan said Armenian forces had successfully repelled attacks on 90% of the front line, but faced difficulties in the 9th sector of the defence, where Azerbaijan had broken through and reached Jabrail. The Armenian army was tasked with stopping the Azerbaijani offensive, as previous attempts at a ceasefire had proved futile.

Pashinian acknowledged the need for painful concessions, but he drew a red line regarding the town of Shusha and the presence of peacekeepers in Meghri. He believed that as long as Shusha remained under Armenian control there was still hope and motivation to fight. However, news of Azerbaijani infiltration of the Lachin-Stepanakert road indicated a gradual loss of Shusha. Eventually, on 7 November, Pashinian received confirmation of the fall of Shushi. Distraught by this news, he demanded that the guarantees given to protect Shushi be implemented and that it be repulsed. However, subsequent reports indicated a loss of Armenian presence in Shusha even before the signing of the tripartite statement on 10 November.

In the negotiations leading to the signing of the Trilateral Declaration, Pashinyan revealed that discussions began on November 6th. Pashinyan agreed to engage in negotiations under the condition that the text of the declaration would not include provisions regarding Shusha and a corridor through Armenian territory. Additionally, he proposed surrendering the Aghdam region in exchange for the Hadrut region, which was already controlled by Azerbaijan. Pashinyan recognized the critical nature of the situation, stating that the outcome hinged on the defense or loss of Shusha.

Despite initial reports on November 8th indicating that part of Shusha was under Armenian control, Pashinyan realized that a complete retaking of Shusha was unlikely. He was informed by the Head of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh about the vulnerability of Stepanakert (Khankendi-ed.) and the potential for Azerbaijan to launch attacks from Shusha towards Askeran and the Aterk-Sotk section, putting the Defense Army's units at risk.

Russian President Vladimir Putin mediated the negotiations, and numerous phone conversations were held between Pashinyan and Putin during the 44-day war, totaling around 60 discussions. Azerbaijan initially did not accept the proposal of exchanging "Aghdam to Hadrut." Eventually, a text was agreed upon that omitted references to Shusha and the creation of a corridor on Armenian territory. The text focused on the cessation of hostilities, the return of seven districts, the establishment of the Lachin corridor, and the deployment of Russian peacekeeping forces in Nagorno-Karabakh and the Lachin corridor.

On the morning of November 9th, Pashinyan signed this text. It is noteworthy that the signing occurred in the morning of November 9th, not during the night leading to November 10th. However, Azerbaijan refused to sign the document and introduced new requirements. The situation reached its climax in the evening of November 9th when Azerbaijan proposed additional clauses that rendered the morning-signed text invalid. Pashinyan strongly opposed the inclusion of a clause regarding "enclaves in the Tavush region." It was officially recorded that Armenia did not sign the document.

Eventually, an agreement was reached to remove the contentious paragraph. However, reports of intensified hostilities and the presence of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the sky of Stepanakert (Khankendi-ed.) emerged close to midnight. After extensive discussions, Pashinyan ultimately signed the well-known document, acknowledging that it was a compromised version, but preferable to the other options presented, such as the Meghri corridor or the clause on "the return of enclaves in the Tavush region," Pashinian summarised his statement.

The 44-day war began on 27 September 2020 after 28 years of Armenia's refusal to liberate the occupied territories of Azerbaijan, which comprised one fifth of the country. Peace talks and exhortations to Yerevan by mediators - the US, Russia and France - to liberate the occupied territories led nowhere.  The war ended with the signing of the Statement of the Presidents of Azerbaijan and Russia and the Prime Minister of Armenia on the cessation of hostilities on November 9-10, 2020. This Statement prevented the complete defeat of the occupying Armenian army.  The Armenian military grouping continues to remain in Karabakh under the protection of the Russian peacekeeping contingent, continuing to destabilize the situation in the region.-0-