Baku / 30.04.18 / Turan: Over the past weekend, emissaries from Moscow have visited Yerevan, trying to understand the events taking place there, and they openly expressed their concern over the possibility of Armenia's "withdrawal" to the West.
At the same time, members of the Armenian government visited Moscow, where they held talks at the Foreign Ministry and other offices.
Realizing that they cannot keep Serzh Sargsyan's team in power, the Kremlin realized the danger of changing the political regime, that is, the possible loss of the power by the Republican Party.
A Russian MP and the former Prime Minister of the former USSR Nikolai Ryzhkov, visiting Yerevan, even called the leader of the protests, Nikol Pashinyan, a "fool" and shamed Armenians for giving him such an opportunity.
Another Russian MP, Konstantin Zatulin, put it more clearly: if the new Armenian authorities renounce agreements with Russia, Moscow will move from de jure to de facto relations. Zatulin made it clear that Moscow will not support Armenia if it changes its pro-Russian orientation.
Finally, the Russian television channels controlled by the Kremlin stated very clearly that Armenia should continue to keep the Russian military base free of charge in Gyumri and remain in the CSTO and the Customs Union. This is exactly what the ruling Republican Party of Armenia, which is now being overthrown by thousands of protesters, guaranteed to Moscow.
It seems the breakthrough is already coming and two factions of the parliament - Dashnaktsutyun and the Tsarukyan bloc - have expressed their support for Nikol Pashinyan.
Elections of the Prime Minister will be held on May 1. The Republican Party has 58 MP seats, the Tsarukyan bloc has 31, the supporters of Pashinyan from the Elk bloc have 9, and Dashnaktsutyun has 7.
The Premier will be elected by a simple majority of votes of 105 MPs. Now 47 MPs are ready to vote for Pashinyan, but he needs at least 53. But the Republicans, who refused to nominate their candidate, do not intend to support Pashinyan.
If the Prime Minister is not elected, then the parliament will have to be dissolved. However, then the provisional government of the Republican Party will be able to conduct new elections, according to the constitution. For this very reason, the protesters demand a complete change of power, so that the Republican Party surrenders all positions, recognizing its defeat.
Apparently, the supporters of Serzh Sargsyan will not be able to retain power, and they will yield to the protesters, in exchange for security guarantees.
Against this background, the main intrigue remains the foreign policy issues of the future new government of Armenia and, above all, its relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Pashinyan in every possible way avoids the issue of the Karabakh settlement. He has not previously had a special program on this issue, which will play a key role not only in the fate of his government, but also in Armenia.
Meanwhile Pashinyan has confined himself to statements that he does not plan any geopolitical changes. However, he will not succeed in avoiding this topic, and in the near future this issue will have vital importance for the Pashinyan team. -02D-
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