What to Expect from Expected Aliyev-Pashinyan Meeting?

Baku/08.01.21/Turan: Unofficial sources in Moscow report that the Aliyev-Pashinyan meeting expected on January 11 in Moscow with the participation of Vladimir Putin will be dedicated to consolidating the agreements reached on November 10 and their further implementation.

One of the points of discussion will be the issue of the corridor through Meghri, and that is why both sides recalled it so often the day before.

Aliyev, in his speech on January 6, said that an agreement had been reached with Russia and discussions were under way with Moscow. It was on this occasion that the government delegation of Russia visited Baku and Yerevan.

In response, Pashinyan's press secretary said that in order to launch the corridor, Baku must return the Armenian prisoners of war.

The position of official Baku is that we gave the Armenians a corridor through Lachin only because the Armenians agreed to open the road to Nakhchivan. If the Armenians intend to frustrate the agreement, then Baku may reconsider the status of the Lachin corridor - such a conclusion can be drawn from the speech of Aliyev, who for the first time stated that the Russian peacekeepers are exceeding their powers and Baku turns a blind eye to this. He also threatened to end the travel of Yerevan officials to Karabakh without Baku’s permission.

This kind of "artillery preparation" on the eve of the meeting called for strengthening the positions of the parties. Meanwhile, observers in Yerevan are pessimistic, believing that Pashinyan has nowhere to go, and he has no special trump cards. The Russian factor will also work against it, since Moscow is interested in opening a railway connecting it with Iran and Turkey and with Armenia itself in Nakhchivan.

Moscow sources close to the Armenian diaspora also report that after Moscow, a separate meeting will take place in Baku. The heads of the special services of Russia, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia will participate in it. It is there that the details of the Moscow agreements on the Meghri corridor and other issues will be specified and recorded in the form of a document.

It is difficult to say how realistic all this is, but the alternative to the agreements on November 10 will certainly be an increase in tension in the region, a hardening of Baku's position and, possibly, new territorial losses of Armenians in Karabakh.  -02B-