Why Mahmudov? Why now?

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- Arastun bey, The Guardian writes that Eldar Mahmudov has a business empire of 100 million euros in England. Now everyone is interested in one question: Why is the wealth of the former minister coming to light right now?

- First of all, let me note that the amount revealed is at best 2-3% of the wealth of the Mahmudov family. Mahmudov is a person who has amassed great wealth in Azerbaijan through blackmail and intimidation, threatening all classes and strata of the hierarchy of power, as well as the business world. I do not rule out that his and his family's wealth is at least $ 5-8 billion. In addition to amassing wealth through the methods I have listed, Mahmudov's criminal gang also controlled several lucrative transnational criminal businesses. There are several reasons why this information about him is now available:

- Political reasons, i.e. the attempt of one of the groups to use Mahmudov’s gang in the struggle for power. Such tendencies have existed before, and have recently become more pronounced. I think that the group that influenced Ilham Aliyev and pardoned Akif Chovdarov and Subahir Gurbanov did it to take advantage of the Mahmudov’s gang. The release of exclusively these two people shows that the decision was made after some negotiations and agreement with Mahmudov. But political inexperience has not allowed us to calculate the risks that have now arisen and will arise later on.

- There may be reasons exclusively related only to the activities of the minister, which may be related to the fact that the behind-the-scenes services provided by Mahmudov to foreign intelligence during his tenure as a minister are now open or approved. I would not like to talk about it in detail. I do not rule out that one day these issues will be more or less reflected in the world media.

- Personal reasons are not also excluded, because Mahmudov's gang blackmailed hundreds of people with themselves, their family, and their children, and such things are never forgotten and are remembered in the most ruthless way when the opportunity arises. Especially considering that in such cases, the former Ministry of National Security was even lower than itself.

- In other words, one of the interesting aspects of the issue is that this is not the first time that an official's business has come to the fore. Earlier, information about the family of the former chairman of the International Bank, Jahangir Hajiyev, was released. But why is this information circulated after the officials were dismissed?Do you think that the dissemination of incriminating information about officials after they left their posts, as well as publications in influential international media, were deliberate?

- First of all, I would not say that only the business and corruption of the dismissed officials are revealed. The corrupt actions of many officials still in office today have been reflected in the world media and journalistic research, just reactions to them in the country differed from the reaction to the dismissed officials. In fact, there was mostly no reaction, some opposition and independent media wrote about it, there were discussions on social media for 1-2 days, and thus the topic was closed. Therefore, it would not be objective to say that there is a purposeful approach here. The "leaks" about Eldar Mahmudov and Jahangir Hajiyev and the fact that the leaked facts eventually appeared in the influential world media may have been initiated from within Azerbaijan. How rational and convenient it is is another matter. The government is illiterate, it has no analytical institutions, and its decisions are often made spontaneously and impulsively, so it cannot calculate all the possible consequences of its actions. It is, of course, my personal opinion that this came from within Azerbaijan, but in any case, since the issue of Mahmudov is already in the spotlight of a very wide circle, now the Aliyev government will suffer the heaviest losses.

- Another interesting aspect of the issue is that after the news was published in the international media, all local media, even pro-government media, circulated this news. This increases the likelihood that the former minister will be targeted again by ones. The recent closure of a bank in the country known for its allegiance to the minister reinforces this possibility. Who is interested in targeting a dismissed official again after all this while?

- I have partially answered this question above, but going into detail, I must say that the "persistence" of such a topic on the agenda in the country is a sign that it comes from within. Mahmudov and his criminal gang have been so hostile to so many people that now they are bearing fruit and will continue to bear fruit. As I have mentioned above, people never forgive such things. Among people Mahmudov is hostile to are thousands of people, from ordinary oppositionists to the head of the state, who see not only injustice but also danger to the resuscitation of the former minister. Therefore, there are thousands of people interested in re-targeting him. Frankly, I'm personally tired of this topic. In the last 4-5 days alone, there have been about 10 requests for interviews and information, 3 of which are from foreign media. You remember that when you were working on the radio, I repeatedly spoke about Mahmudov's crimes in your programs, and not everyone did it at that time because there were times when the ex-minister was not interrogated for “the head chopped off by him”. By the way, I did not condemn anyone then for being silent, nor do I intend to condemn today. The fact that I and my family members passed through at that time gives me a reason to never do that but I do not have a hostile attitude towards Mahmudov. Because firstly, I do not want to burden myself with hatred, resentment, revenge; secondly, I have long said everything that needs to be said about his actions; and thirdly, a man should become hostile towards those who deserve it.

- One of the versions is that preparations are underway for the arrest of Eldar Mahmudov. Is it possible that Eldar Mahmudov will be arrested after all this time? And if so, what could be the political reasons for this?

- I think it is too late to talk about it now. Ilham Aliyev extended Mahmudov's arrest to such a stage that any step taken in this direction would be to the detriment of his own. In other words, Mahmudov's arrest and release will work against Ilham Aliyev equally. I would like to clarify this point a little because it sounds contradictory. The fact that Mahmudov remains free could lead to international sanctions by growing issues regarding him. On the other hand, let's not forget that Mahmudov still has serious foreign partners who support him, and they are not interested in the arrest of the ex-minister. Because if Mahmudov is sent to prison, he can clarify many things. Therefore, it is possible that now Ilham Aliyev may face serious pressure from several sides at the same time. In this case, too, it will be very difficult to find a common ground. But it is still possible to find a way out of the situation. But the decision to choose this path cannot be made by the head of the state alone.

- It is interesting that although there is information in the media about the wealth of current officials, these reports are not so widespread. That is, it is not investigated, it is not widely circulated in the local media. Why? Who defines this policy?

- Given that the absolute majority of local media is controlled by the government, it is the government that makes such decisions. Of course, the government is not yet interested in exposing incumbent officials because it means exposing the government. Such revelations reduce public confidence in the government, which already has a very low level of credit. The approach to targeting dismissed officials is quite the opposite. By exposing the dismissed officials, the government is trying to gain points on their “political corpse”, as well as try to take away the wealth they have amassed by threatening them. Although attempts to create an image of fighting corruption by exposing dismissed corrupt officials have not yielded positive results, there is a mechanism for seizing at least some of their wealth. This is one of the main goals regarding them.

- What processes do you think will take place around this event? Or will the government be able to resolve this issue in some way? Or what steps can be taken to make this issue in favor of the overall process?

- I think that the participation and influence of international and external factors in this issue will further increase, which will further expand the scope of discussion on the topic. In this case, the government's capacity is even more limited, which, as I said earlier, makes it impossible for it to resolve the issue in its favor. The reason is not only that but also the fact that the government does not have any consistent, systematic, and precise plan in this regard. Such a protracted issue also worked to its detriment and created a de facto stalemate. Therefore, in the current situation, it does not seem convincing that the government can get out of the situation profitably. In my opinion, the analysis also shows that the government can, at best, come out of the Mahmudov scandal with a "draw". In other words, “both the lambs survive and the wolfs feed”. Such a result occurs only in fairy tales with a very positive ending.