Is the government in a hurry?

As Baku prepares to host the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) on November 29, discussions are intensifying regarding the potential advancement of parliamentary elections, originally slated for the fall. The Chairman of the Central Election Commission (CEC), Mazahir Panahov, has hinted multiple times that the elections might be rescheduled to accommodate the significant international event.

This possible shift has sparked a debate about the timing and motivations behind the proposed change. COP29 is expected to draw substantial international attention and participation, which could overshadow or complicate the election process.

MP Agil Abbas, speaking to Turan, noted that there are no compelling reasons for early parliamentary elections aside from the logistical challenges posed by COP29. "The elections should be in early November by law, but there are big events in November. Also, municipal elections will be held in December. Therefore, parliamentary elections can be held one or several months earlier," Abbas explained. He added that the president is expected to sign an order about the elections two months in advance, but the exact timing remains uncertain.

On social media, some users speculate that the Azerbaijani government may have additional motives for expediting the elections, citing the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war and deepening economic issues. Seymour Hazi, deputy chairman of the opposition Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan (PFPA), criticized the government's handling of the situation, suggesting that the rush is a tactic to minimize political engagement. "The government no longer recognizes any norms," Hazi told Radio Azadlig, arguing that holding elections in the summer would dampen voter turnout. "The government does not want society to be active in these processes. When society is politically active, it is against the government."

Conversely, political commentator Zardusht Alizadeh contended that COP29 is a legitimate reason for advancing the elections. "COP29 is a global event expected to host 60-70 thousand people. Azerbaijan has an obligation to accommodate them and ensure the event's smooth operation. All government agencies will be mobilized for this, so holding elections at the same time would be an excessive burden," Alizadeh said. He emphasized that the primary concern is logistical rather than political.

The backdrop to this debate includes a history of controversial elections in Azerbaijan. The last parliamentary elections in February 2020 were marred by allegations of violations, leading the CEC to annul results in four districts, with no subsequent elections held to fill these seats. The 2020 parliamentary elections were themselves advanced by six months, officially attributed to a desire to "accelerate reforms."

Opposition parties, however, have long argued that such accelerations are designed to stifle fair competition. They assert that the authorities are unprepared for a transparent electoral process and thus opt for hastened schedules to maintain control. This view is supported by the OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, which reported numerous violations in recent elections, though Azerbaijani officials dismiss such criticisms.