What are the expectations in Azerbaijan from the Yevlakh meeting?

On September 21 by the Presidential Administration of Azerbaijan, where representatives of Armenian residents of the Karabakh region gathered to discuss matters pertaining to reintegration based on the Constitution and laws of Azerbaijan. This meeting comes as part of what Azerbaijan characterizes as "local anti-terrorist measures" following recent hostilities.

According to the official AZERTAC website, participants at the meeting delved into the complex issues surrounding the reintegration of the Karabakh region into Azerbaijan, underlining the importance of adhering to the Azerbaijani Constitution and legal framework.

The decision to hold this meeting reflects Azerbaijan's determination to address the challenges arising from the recent conflict and signals its commitment to taking a proactive role in shaping the region's future. Deputy Chairman of the Milli Majlis Committee on Defense, Security, and the Fight Against Corruption, Hikmet Babaoglu, commented to Turan, on Azerbaijan's assertive stance, stating, "Azerbaijan is in a strong position, dictating the terms of the agreement."

Babaoglu further highlighted Russia's role in these proceedings, emphasizing that Russia has adhered to the principle of recognizing each other's territorial integrity, as stipulated in the "Declaration on Joint Allied Activities" signed between Russia and Azerbaijan in February 2022.

As part of the reintegration efforts, Azerbaijani government agencies are expected to swiftly establish a presence in Khankendi, asserting constitutional governance throughout the Karabakh region.

However, political commentator Arastun Orujlu suggests that a compromise may be reached during the Yevlakh meeting, with periodic contacts and mutual commitments as potential outcomes. He notes in an interview with Radio Azadlig  that the Armenian community in Karabakh may prioritize their security and non-deportation, though the Azerbaijani government may not be inclined to grant autonomy.

Orujlu identifies three key demands that Azerbaijan is likely to implement: the dissolution of what they term the "so-called regime," the disarmament of illegal military groups, and addressing the issue of communication for the Armenian population in Karabakh, including access through the Lachin and Agdam-Khankendi roads.

Russia's pivotal role in mediating the ceasefire and ongoing negotiations is underscored by Orujlu, who emphasizes Russia's unique position as the controlling party in the region. Russia has both a military presence and strategic interests, including the potential transformation of its military unit in Karabakh into a permanent base.

The political scientist also speculates on the challenges ahead, suggesting that the establishment of Azerbaijani government agencies in Khankendi may be delayed due to Russia's interests in the region.

Recent developments in the region have been marked by Azerbaijan's announcement of "local anti-terrorist measures" on September 19 and subsequent demands for the withdrawal of Armenian armed forces from the area. Yerevan, on the other hand, has denied having military forces in Karabakh, characterizing the situation as "large-scale aggression."

On September 20, an agreement was reached to halt hostilities, leading to the departure of Armenian Armed Forces from Azerbaijani territories and the disbandment of illegal Armenian armed groups. These developments are set to unfold in coordination with the Russian peacekeeping contingent, further underlining Russia's pivotal role in the ongoing reconciliation process.