What does Azerbaijan want from Armenia?

In a recent address at ADA University, President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan laid out a stark imperative for lasting peace in the South Caucasus – a strict guarantee against any potential revanchist attempts by Armenia. The President's precondition on guarantees was made against the background of geopolitical difficulties, both at the regional and global levels.

The Azerbaijani leadership has extended an olive branch to Armenia, proposing bilateral, non-mediated negotiations leading to a comprehensive peace treaty. A joint statement on December 7 from the administrations of both countries underscored a shared belief in a "historic opportunity to achieve long-awaited peace in the region" and an intent to normalize relations based on principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity.

However, as Azerbaijan seeks guarantees, questions linger: What assurances are necessary, and who should serve as the guarantors?

Hikmet Babaoglu, deputy chairman of the Milli Majlis Committee on defense, security, and fight against corruption,  , in an interview with Turan, emphasized the need to halt any revanchist attempts by Armenia for a secure peace in the region. Babaoglu asserted that Armenia, over the past three years, has been arming itself, preparing for potential conflict despite the newfound opportunity for peace. He highlighted Armenia's global alliances, particularly with France, the USA, and India, as evidence of external support for its military ambitions.

Babaoglu argued against international organizations or foreign countries acting as guarantors for Armenia's commitment to eschew revanchism, stating that such involvement would result in a forced, temporary peace rather than a lasting one. Instead, he asserted that Armenia must independently renounce revanchism in any peace treaty for the prospect of a durable regional peace.

The political landscape, however, reveals a nuanced perspective. Babaoglu acknowledged that guarantees for Azerbaijan's people and state are not achievable through foreign powers but rather lie in the strength of the Azerbaijani army, the unity of the people and authorities, and the country's standing on the international stage.

Political analyst Zardusht Alizade in an interview with Azadlig Radio  highlighted existing flaws within Azerbaijan, pointing to challenges in achieving unity between the government and its citizens. Alizade questioned the unity between the people and authorities, emphasizing concerns about constitutional violations, human rights infringements, and political prisoners within Azerbaijan.

While Azerbaijan's military might is evident, Alizade argued that the country's true guarantee lies in protecting the rights of its citizens and fostering their confidence in the state. As the delicate negotiations unfold, the pursuit of peace in the South Caucasus remains a complex interplay of geopolitical dynamics, internal unity, and a delicate balance of guarantees that will define the region's future.