Will Azerbaijan become a member of the Eurasian Union?

Azerbaijani Prime Minister Ali Asadov attended the meeting of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council in Sochi, Russian Federation on June 8 as a guest. This follows President Ilham Aliyev's recent participation in a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council.

During the meeting, A. Asadov highlighted that Azerbaijan's trade turnover with the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (ADB) increased by 31 percent to reach $4.7 billion last year. He further noted that the share of ADB member countries in Azerbaijan's foreign trade turnover accounted for approximately 9 percent, with a 38 percent growth in trade turnover recorded from January to April of the current year.

The ADB includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia.

MP Elshad Mirbashiroglu, in an interview with Turan emphasized Azerbaijan's active engagement on platforms aligned with its national interests, acknowledging the vast potential for cooperation in various sectors of the Azerbaijani economy. He stated that Azerbaijan's participation in discussions within the Eurasian Economic Union can serve its economic interests, particularly considering the well-established political relations and multidirectional economic ties with ADB member countries, except Armenia.

Azer Gasimli, head of the Institute of Political Management, expressed the view that Azerbaijan does not need to become a member of the ADB given the current circumstances.

In a comment for Radio Azadlig, he noted that while Russia has a military presence in Karabakh, it is engaged in a war and faces sanctions. Gasimli suggested that Azerbaijani officials participate in ADB meetings primarily to affirm their close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He explained that as the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine and the Russian-Western confrontation remains uncertain, Azerbaijan is attempting to establish closer relations with the West on certain matters while also signaling its proximity to Russia through participation in such platforms.

The political scientist opined that Azerbaijan's potential membership in the ADB would hinge on the outcome of the war in Ukraine. If Russia were to emerge as the victor and wield greater influence in the region, there might be a possibility of Azerbaijan joining the Union. However, Gasimli assessed this probability as low, attributing it not to the unwillingness of Azerbaijani leadership but to the prevailing situation and the perspective adopted by the Azerbaijani government. He emphasized that the Azerbaijani government is closely monitoring developments and that the country's interests are not a primary concern in this regard.