Problems are created not so much by the drought as by the irresponsibility of officials...

The latest information published by the UN FAO in August notes that in July,  the FAO Cereal Price Index decreased by 11.5% compared to June, and by 16% compared to July 2021. The FAO also notes that the fall in international prices affected all grain varieties included in this index. Thus, in July, world prices for wheat fell by 14.5%. This is partly due to the agreement reached between Ukraine and the Russian Federation to unblock the main Ukrainian Black Sea ports, as well as to expectations of a full recovery in the future of grain exports from Ukraine. The fall in wheat prices over the past month is also attributed by FAO to the start of harvesting in the Northern Hemisphere and, as a result, to an increase in supply.

FAO also notes that international wheat prices are still 24.8% higher than last July.

The latest FAO report, released in August, also notes that international coarse grain prices have also continued to decline for the fourth month in a row. Fodder grain fell by 11.2% compared to the previous month, but remains 12.1% higher than last year. The main reason for the fall in world market prices for corn by 10.7% was the conclusion of an agreement on the unblocking of Ukrainian ports. Seasonal increases in shipments to Argentina and Brazil also  caused lowering corn prices. This year's harvest exceeds last year's figures in these countries. The decrease in quotations for wheat and corn also  caused a decrease in prices for sorghum and barley, by 12.8% and 12.6%, respectively.

The FAO also noted that in July, international rice prices declined for the first time since early 2022 due to volatile demand and exchange rate fluctuations in major exporting countries.

In a report published a month earlier, FAO indicated as one of the reasons for the decline in grain prices in June the expected growth in grain production in the Russian Federation (RF) this year. Also, a few days ago, Russian experts calculated that in 2022, grain production in Russia will exceed 130 million tons. But in recent days, government officials of the Russian Federation report that the situation in this area has changed. The head of the Department of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, citing Minister Dmitry Patrushev, said that this season (July 2022-2023) grain export plans may be revised, as the ministry sees risks for harvesting the planned 130 million tons of crops.

The Minister of Agriculture of the Russian Federation said that the volume of compressed grain compared to last year is small, in a number of areas precipitation slows down the harvesting campaign. “In  the whole, all this creates risks in terms of achieving a grain harvest of 130 million tons,” Patrushev said. Of course, we will fully provide our market, there will be no problems with this. However, if the planned volumes are not achieved, we will have to revise our export plans of 50 million tons. And this may have a negative impact on the world grain market.”

I should note that Russian experts also noted that in the future the production and export of grain in Russia may be seriously reduced due to the lack of quality seeds. Thus, the President of the Russian Grain Union, Arkady Zlochevsky, in an interview with the press, noted that in Russia there is a problem with the quality of seeds. He noted that Russia is not engaged in the cultivation of high-yielding hybrid seeds, and the yield of varietal seeds existing in Russia is low: “We switched to expensive, imported hybrid seeds, for example, rye, because they give 75 centners per hectare. And their own, varietal, in a good year, with favorable weather, they gave 40 centners per hectare. “If the supply of foreign hybrids stops, you will have to switch to varietal seeds - this will lead to a sharp drop in yield.”

What is the situation in Azerbaijan? The total sown area of ​​wheat and barley in Azerbaijan for 2022 is 1019934 hectares (606 thousand 338 hectares - wheat, 413 thousand 596 hectares - barley).

The information about the harvest in the country was last published a month ago, and it  was noted that on July 6, on 72.6% of the sown areas, the process of harvesting winter grain in the republic was completed. 2163875 tons of crops were harvested from the fields. Calculations show that the average yield in the country this year is about 29.3 centners per hectare.  The  presented data show that this year the yield obtained from each hectare is by 3 centners  less than in the previous one.

In general, imports of grain and grain products to the country continue to grow. So, in January-June of the current year, grain imports, products of the flour and cereal industry; malt; starch; inulin; wheat gluten, finished products from grain, flour, starch or milk; flour confectionery products in value terms amounted to $277 million 474 thousand, which is 35.7% more than in the same period last year. In 2021 the total value of grains imported into the country and products obtained from grain amounted to $529 million 794 thousand, which is 8.2% more than in 2020.

A few days ago, Minister of Agriculture Inam Kerimov said that due to the severe drought that was observed in Azerbaijan in January-February this year, grain crops were destroyed on an area of ​​about 100,000 hectares. “We experienced the same thing in 2020, it is expected that such cases will occur in the future due to drought,” he said in an interview with Real TV. This year, 10% of existing grain crops have been destroyed. Inam Kerimov also said that this happened in 2020 and will even happen in the future. The minister in charge of agriculture sees no way out of this situation. He is busy stating a fact.

On January 12 in an interview with local TV channels, the Head of State Ilham Aliyev said: “It is possible that we have already begun to deal with this issue - to rent fertile lands suitable for grain growing in other countries, grow products there and import them to Azerbaijan. So this is the real picture. Today our desires and possibilities do not coincide. Further, Ilham Aliyev said, "If I say today that we can provide ourselves with 100 percent food wheat, then in the current conditions it will probably be a mistake."

Look, the authorities of a country where 10% of grain crops have been destroyed, having not received even one kilogram from 100,000 hectares, decided to “rent fertile lands suitable for grain growing in other countries and grow products there.” However, the government of Israel, where the population is about the same as in Azerbaijan, the area under crops is by 5 times less, and the water for irrigation is by  8 times less, does not complain about the lack of water and land resources. In 2006-2016   Israel  even doubled the yield of wheat per hectare, i.e. from 23.9 to 49.7 centners. Azerbaijan, in grain growing, could not raise the yield above 30 centners per hectare.

On the example of the Sheki region, one can show how deplorable the situation is in grain growing. The Sheki region is considered the largest and most advanced grain-growing region of the republic. This year, the grain yield in the Sheki region has more than halved. Sahib Abdulhamidov, head of the crop production sector of the Sheki State Agrarian Development Center, told AZERTAC's regional correspondent said that the harvesting campaign has ended in the farms of the Sheki region.

“In the current season, 48 thousand 219.5 hectares have been harvested in the region, 88 thousand 483 tons of grain have been produced. The average yield was 18.4 centners per 1 ha,” he said.

The official noted that this season, Sheki farmers received 22,224.9 tons of barley from an area of ​​42,671.8 hectares and 25,994.6 tons of wheat from an area of ​​45,811.2 hectares. The average yield of barley was 19.2 centners per 1 ha, and wheat - 17.6 centners per 1 ha.

According to the head of the sector, last fall, 65,283 hectares were sown with grain in the region for the 2022 harvest. However, due to dry weather, grain on an area of ​​17 thousand 63.5 hectares was completely destroyed. Therefore, 48 thousand 219.5 hectares of areas sown with grain have been harvested in the region this season.

Our calculations show that this year the average yield in grain growing in the Sheki region amounted to 13.5 centners. So, as noted above, in the Sheki region, grain was sown on an area of ​​65 thousand 283 hectares and 88 thousand 430 tons of crops were obtained from these territories. And this means an average of 13.5 centners of the crop in the region. I note that in 2020, in the Sheki region, 199,261 tons of grain were harvested from an area of ​​65,657 hectares (30.3 centners per 1 ha). Two years ago, both production and average yields were 2.2 times higher than they are now. Ten years ago (in 2012) 255 thousand 825.7 tons were collected, that is, 2.9 times more than the current one.

On the example of Sheki region

In May 2022, monitoring was carried out on the fields sown with grain in the Shenkinsky district. “In the fall of 2021, grain farmers in the Sheki region carried out winter sowing of grain for the 2022 harvest on an area of 65,283 hectares. Wheat was sown  on 32,319 hectares and barley - 32,964 ha.  The fields sown with grain had normal growth. However, the lack of precipitation and drought in February, March and April 2022 had a negative impact on winter crops.

On May 14, 2022, Deputy Head of the Sheki City Executive Authority, Head of the Department for Analysis and Forecasting Socio-Economic Development, Elman Imamverdiyev inspected grain crops in the villages of Gohmug, Baltali, Gudula, Boyuk Dahna, Kichik Dahna, Suchma, Aran, Kekirli, Gozlubulag, Kavka, Gayabashi , Bolludara, Garatorpag and the village of Turan.  The inspection revealed a likelihood of a decrease in productivity in the villages of Boyuk Dakhna, Kichik Dakhna, Aran, Sarija and the village of Turan.

We tried to study the situation. Did the absence of precipitation and drought in February, March and April really have a negative impact on winter crops, as the official says? To study the situation, we had to conduct a study on the example of the village Gohmug, which is at the very top of the list. As a result, it turned out that due to the negligence, irresponsibility and indifference of government officials in the village of Gohmug, the last 2 years the fields allotted for grain, tobacco and vegetable crops were left without water. So, on May 16, 2022, an article was published in the media entitled “The suffering of the inhabitants of Sheki, similar to a joke…”. It said that “despite the fact that the Sheki village of Gohmug is generally provided with enough water, about 60 farms of the village were left without it. The reason for this is that 2 years ago, when asphalting the Gohmug-Babaratma road, the water pipe was dismantled, and after the completion of construction work, it was not installed in place.

“We have a water plant capable of irrigating 1,000 hectares. But when the road was being laid, the water pipe was removed and laid aside. And then, the road was asphalted, without installing the pipe in place. Having so much water, to be left without watering?!”, said the villager to the press representative.

Another resident of the village, Shamil Davudov, also said that due to the lack of water from the field, where they previously received up to 40 centners of grain, now it is impossible to collect even 20 centners.

We have repeatedly noted that the government of Azerbaijan is not only unable to organize the efficient use of available water resources, but, on the contrary, creating artificial problems leads to very serious water losses. And then they say that there was no rain, the crop died due to drought.

Those who are responsible for this area should know that problems in agriculture are created not so much by drought as by irresponsible officials...

[1] https://www.interfax.ru/business/855432

[2] https://www.mk.ru/economics/2022/04/14/glava-zernovogo-soyuza-predskazal-fiasko-rossii-na-mirovom-rynke-zerna.htmlv

[3] https://president.az/ru/articles/view/55243

[4] http://sheki-ih.gov.az/az/news/bu-il-sekide-88-min-tondan-cox-taxil-istehsal-olunub.html

[5] http://sheki-ih.gov.az/az/news/rayonun-ekin-sahelerinde-monitorinqler-heyata-kecirilib.html

[6] http://www.dia.az/3/338779-sheki-sakinlerinin-letfe-km-derd.html