Communication between Turkey and Azerbaijan on the eve of the Idlib operation

The main strategic goal of the operations "Shield of the Euphrates" and "Olive Branch", held in August 2016 and January-March 2018 in Syria by the armed forces of Turkey with the direct blessing of Russia (in the critical time for Turkey, and especially for President T. Erdogan), was the destruction of representatives of the terrorist organizations Al-Qaeda, An-Nusra, who escaped to the Idlib settlement (especially after the defeat in Khaleb.) It is located in the South-West of Damascus.In the "Astana Process", which began in January 2017 with the participation of Russia, Turkey and Iran, Moscow, first proposed a draft Constitution of Syria, and then did not reject Turkey's proposal to create in that region "observation points" in order to clear Idlib from terrorists.

The main goal of Turkey in the Idlib region was to take the radical groups backed by Saudi Arabia under their control and withdraw them from the region. Russia, which gave Turkey a green light for the operations of the Euphrates Shield and the Olive Branch, but did not receive the necessary support from Ankara to destroy the entrenched 50,000 LIH members in the region, about half of whom were Chechens.In other words, Ankara, wasting energy, was not particularly enthusiastic about the withdrawal "from under the nose of Assad" groups, which it found close to its religious and ideological terms. Russia continues to consider the most important moment of the current relations with Turkey the cleansing purification of Idlib from the LIH members of Chechen and Uighur origin.

According to the Iranian news agency Fars on August 29, the main purpose of the meeting held in Moscow several days ago between the President Putin, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, the defense minister (1.5 months ago - Chief of the General Staff) Hulusi Akar, and the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Hakan Fidan, was the postponement of the military operation in Idlib, surrounded by the army of Assad. Today we see that it is not possible to prevent a military operation in Idlib, which increases the possibility of the return of Chechen, Uighur and Central Asian militants to the Caucasus and via the Caucasus to Central Asia.

In this situation, Turkey is forced to take two steps at the same time: the first is to strengthen the security of its southern borders in order to prevent a new wave of immigrants from Idlib, and the second - in creating a barrier for penetration of the same militants via the territory of Azerbaijan to the Caucasus and in Central Asia, which Russia seriously fears.

Turkey is forced to take this step not only for its own security, but also for the purpose of preventing the dispersal of militants who left Syria to neighboring countries, especially Azerbaijan and Russia (the North Caucasus), with strong pressure and even pressure from Moscow.

Russia is trying to ensure that terrorists, especially Chechens, do not leave Idlib alive, and put the blame for trespassing the surviving terrorist groups to the Caucasus and Central Asia, first of all, on Turkey and then on other countries, including Azerbaijan. It could be correct to see in this context the reason for the frequent visits in recent days to Baku of the commander-in-chief of the gendarmerie forces under the authority of the Minister of Internal Affairs, as well as high-ranking officials of the Ministry of National Defense.

That is, during the operation in Idlib Russia would like to see Turkey next to Russia, shoulder to shoulder. Until today, Russia approved two important military operations by Turkey in Syria only to ensure this cooperation in the Idlib operation, which is of vital importance for Moscow. However, Turkey did not do it in time and now, being in a desperate situation, in a hurry, tries to fulfill to a certain extent the demand of Russia, involving Azerbaijan in this matter.

Will Moscow remain satisfied with these maneuvers of Ankara?

Time will show.