Discussions on the possible reasons for the early elections for April 11, 2018 in Azerbaijan are continuing. What are the main factors that cause the need for early presidential elections?

Without excluding the role of internal and external factors among the reasons that predetermined the adoption of this decision, we believe that the only goal is the desire of the authorities to retain the power for a longer term and in a more sustainable form.

For the expert community, this decision was not unexpected, and from time to time at various levels the probability of its adoption was discussed. The changes made to the Constitution in 2016 provided the president with the power to appoint elections on any date. Such a decision could be announced immediately after the referendum, and based on the extension of the terms of the powers of the president to seven years, its adoption could be accelerated until 2020. The adoption of such a decision completely depended on the desire, interest and even the mood of the president.

Despite the fact that the legal framework for this step exists in the legislation, the authorities have not logically and reasonably explained its political reasons. Taking into account all the opportunities, conditions and political will for total falsification, the rush of power indicates that it is something to beware. The official reasons for the postponement of elections in connection with the celebration of the 100th anniversary of the republic, the humanitarian forum cannot be taken into account. In any case, the change in the election date means that the country is on the eve of very serious and loud processes.

Let's try to analyze several versions of the reasons that forced the authorities to take this step.

Could such problems as the socio-economic crisis, weak confidence in the authorities inside and outside the country, the prospects for sanctions, the complication of the situation around Karabakh and such factors prevent the authorities from easily holding elections in the fall?

Practice shows that, in the context of the socio-economic crisis, the growth of political activity can cause unexpected political consequences. Perhaps, while taking the decision was also considered the influence of this factor. Theoretically, the relevance of this version cannot be excluded, but it is difficult to practically consider it decisive. True, the country has not yet emerged from a serious crisis, wide sections of society are experiencing a crisis on their own, and their discontent is growing. However, the authorities regularly take preventive steps to prevent this situation from reaching a dangerous line.

The monitoring shows that the society has significantly adapted to the severity of the social crisis and even psychologically prepared for further deterioration of the situation. In the most acute period of the crisis, the people did not support the protest action of the opposition, and did not show any interest in exerting pressure on the authorities in any form. So, the explanation of the government's rush anxiety that the growth of socio-economic problems can cause unrest is insufficient.

It is also difficult to talk about the decisive role of the negative antidemocratic reputation that emerged inside and outside the country, for a government that does not consider either public opinion, opposition, or the people. Despite the fact that the elections held so far have caused justified criticism of the international community, the authorities do not refrain from another total falsification. Only the application of US sanctions against the oligarchs and members of the Russian government caused slight alarm among the majority of Azerbaijani officials. According to some reports, even a closed discussion was held on this topic. However, these factors cannot be taken as the main reason for postponing the election period.

The fact that the current international peacekeeping mission on Karabakh can offer some innovations and these factors can lead to tensions in the country cannot be considered as a reason for the postponement of the elections.

It would also be incorrect to consider early elections as an announcement of preparations for political and legal reforms. When considering this issue, first of all, the points of view of the interests of the authorities, there are no factors that indicate the need for the initiation of reforms. With the current silence and tranquility of society, the authorities will not want to create a headache with political reforms. Why should the authorities change the status quo and create problems for themselves if it can still continue to exist in the present incarnation? It is not convincing that the authorities will embark on broad democratic reforms if there is no appreciable pressure from society.

According to one of the versions under consideration, the authorities, having gone ahead, put the opposition in front of the dilemma of participation or non-participation. In general, the authorities constantly took systematic legal and practical measures to ensure that the activity in the election process was low. In this regard, "the Constitution, Electoral Code, and relevant legislative acts have been improved." To prevent the formation of the electoral environment in the society, all opportunities for the activities of independent media, political structures, and civil society were blocked. The authorities have the opportunity to nominate only the most selected individuals and structures as candidates for participation in the elections. Because of the absence of rights, the opposition misses the opportunity to better prepare for protests.

Can the presidential elections, which take place in March in Russia, be one of the main reasons for holding elections six months before?

It should be recognized that Moscow's influence on society, and especially on the authorities in Azerbaijan, is roughly the same as in the Soviet period. In recent years, Russia has developed the most aggressive, tense and controversial political situation. Now it is more difficult to predict the further course of events in this country. Russia, apparently seemingly stable, inside in a latent form is straining. Tensions in relations with the United States and Europe, violation of trade and economic relations with them have put Russia in a difficult situation and can cause new insecurities dangerous for internal stability after the March elections. In strategic terms, Russia also has a number of postponed cases related to Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijani authorities have few opportunities to resist these plans. It is possible that there is a direct link between the appointment of early elections in Azerbaijan and the next presidential election in Russia.

In conclusion, let us consider some possible trends in the development of processes.

The attitude of society towards the electoral process will not be different from the past practice. This is followed by a number of deep psychological, social, political reasons, and their elimination requires appropriate training and a certain amount of time. The reaction of the international community, most likely, will not be at the level to change the direction of the processes. The attitude of the opposition and independent representatives of civil society to the electoral process is not consolidated, and they do not have the opportunity to force the authorities to reconsider their decision. The authorities can offer a "big" compromise to the local and international democratic public by releasing a group of people convicted for political reasons to freedom.

It can also be expected that after the "elections" the transition of the system of socio-political relations in the country to a new stage will become inevitable. The president, who has been given the power for the next seven years, can take a number of necessary decisions. One of the main objectives pursued here is to bid farewell to the elderly members of the team, to form a new team under the guise of structural reforms, more systematically concentrate the power in one hand and move on to the stage of structural and economic reforms without compromising the regime's foundations. Inside the authorities, this issue is also discussed: some time after the presidential elections, to hold extraordinary parliamentary elections and elect a small group of people with the image of independent and opposition figures to the parliament, which will allow further manipulation of relations with local and international public. Processes taking place in the region are also taken into account, which indicate that soon Azerbaijan will enter a very controversial and tense period of its development.