Elections are over, society is waiting

The interview of the first state official on the eve of the election is a traditional pre-election practice, almost a ritual. As a rule, this statement of positive changes in the country, a certain vision of the future, less often is a clear assessment of the mistakes of the past.

The latest interview of President Ilham Aliyev with the leadership of the Russian TASS, is mainly an appeal to the outside world, although an ordinary citizen of the country can also read something here. In the interview was touched a wide range of issues - from the president's personal life to the diversification of the economy, from political reforms to the country's foreign policy, from problems of demography to the development of sport.

The pre-election nature of the interview dictated its rules, and it is mainly focused on positives. Any citizen will subscribe to the president's words that Azerbaijan now is known in the world more and better than ten or fifteen years ago. Turning to the outside world, the president speaks about the merits of the nation - its sense of history, tolerance, hospitality. He acts as an active champion of multi-confessional and multi-ethnicity, calling it the real wealth of the country.

Almost every citizen will agree with the president's statement that the main direction of the state's activity should be "ensuring full economic independence, which is the basis of political independence." However, this is the personal political handwriting of Ilham Aliyev, which seeks to minimize all problems for carrying out an independent policy. Although the dependence on world oil prices made this independence a bit illusory.

The President enthusiastically speaks about everything that has raised the country's international prestige. Azerbaijan is making great efforts to become a bridge between the West and the East. Large-scale international humanitarian forums have been held in Baku for many years to ensure the dialogue of civilizations, major sports festivals - the first European Olympics, the first Islamic games, the world championships. The country is getting known more and more.

MESSAGE TO OTHER COUNTRIES. Any interview is a message to someone. The first addressee of the message is Russia, which the president calls a "strategic partner." He talks about trusting relations with President Putin, where there is no taboo on topics, about 300 Russian schools in Azerbaijan and even two branches of the largest Russian universities in Azerbaijan, joint regional projects. This is recognition of the power of the northern neighbor and, at the same time, seeking effective contacts with him.

Of course, the proportions are carefully verified. The other part of the message is addressed to the West and concerns democracy. The President says: "... I have repeatedly stated publicly that it will be impossible to achieve sustainable development in the economic sphere without reforming the political system. Lately a lot has been done in this direction. Azerbaijan is a country open to the world. In our country there are all democratic institutions. Freedom of the press is fully ensured. Azerbaijan is a country with free Internet, and the number of its users is growing, already approaching somewhere to 80%. Freedom of assembly, freedom of political activity is also guaranteed." The West is well aware of the level of democracy in Azerbaijan, but this is a message. We do not renounce Western values.

As if explaining the position of Azerbaijan, the president says that Azerbaijan's national interests consist of good relations with all countries. "Not at the expense of any one-sided concessions, but as a result of an effectively built-up cooperation policy that is aimed at a concrete result. And I think the result of this is that Azerbaijan has a very strong position in the Muslim world and actively participates in and defends its interests in European structures. " The multi-vector foreign policy of Azerbaijan, which is much spoken about today, the president considers to be the result of a pragmatic policy aimed at cooperation with neighbors. In fact, Azerbaijan does make huge investments in regional, transport infrastructure. "Everything that happens in the region has a certain influence on us. Therefore, we must strive to minimize risks for ourselves through international cooperation," he says.

The President is undoubtedly aware of the negotiations on the status of the Caspian Sea, but he is almost emphatically distancing himself from the geopolitical acuteness of this issue. "I think in determining the final status of the Caspian Sea, it is important that we are moving in the right direction ... Along with this, I should note that the issue of the unsettled status of the Caspian Sea in no way affects either the multilateral format of cooperation between the Caspian states, nor the bilateral."

A significant part of the interview concerns the Karabakh conflict. He accuses Armenia of imitating the negotiation process and constant movement in a circle, of general dissatisfaction with the existing status quo around Karabakh. The de-occupation of Azerbaijani territory, he said, is the first step in the phased settlement of the conflict, which must be carried out again on the basis of norms and principles of international law. And when the president talks about the new defense industry for Azerbaijan, that Azerbaijan becomes even an exporter of military products, this is turned to the combat capability of the Azerbaijani army, first of all, to Armenia itself, to the countries participating in the peacekeeping process.

The president speaks in great detail about the economic situation in the country: diversification, almost defeated unemployment and poverty, and financial stability of the country. He emphasizes good places in the ratings - on the growth of the index of global competitiveness of Azerbaijan, in the index of inclusiveness of the economy, in which the country takes the third place among developing countries. Here there are interesting passages. Aliyev says that 1.4 million jobs have been created over the past 15 years, but over the same years the population of Azerbaijan has grown by 1.5 million people. Therefore, he believes, our economy must constantly outstrip demography. And this means that the economy should be constantly growing.

Under the conditions of global competition for attracting investments, any interview of the first person of the state is an attempt to identify the country's attractiveness for business. Including, through the recognition of the country. But in any country the investor is interested, first of all, the degree of business security, the tax environment, healthy competition in the economy.

WHAT COULD "READ" IN THE INTERVIEW CITIZENZ OF THE COUNTRY. It has long been known that the president does not like to give interviews to domestic media. This is rather strange, because the policy of the president should first of all be opened to his own people, which actually creates the history of the country. Of course, the president travels a lot around the country's regions. But, as a rule, this is a communication on a very specific occasion with the heads of the executive branch. And most often they solve economic problems arising in the agrarian sector or with the creation of infrastructure.

One should not confuse populism and dialogue with the people, the president says. But we, the experts, are talking about a fundamental and open dialogue with the people, where new ideas can be spoken out. Remember Putin"s annual speech to the Federal Assembly, his many hours of communication with the people on a live television broadcast. Critics of power there too speak of populism. Maybe there is some populism, but as a result of active dialogue with the public became the creation of the All-Russian Popular Front - an organization of citizens who otherwise acts as an alternative to the "United Russia" party in power. It is strange that the All-Russian Popular Front has become a forge of manpower. There is an alternative social elevator.

The President believes that "there was not and will not be any difficulties with issues related to internal development." He believes that real risks for citizens and the country come only from the regional situation.

It is difficult to agree with this. The previous five presidential years were not easy for Ilham Aliyev. The life of the majority of citizens of the country has noticeably worsened. In the interview, there is not a single word about such a negative sign as the economic crisis that began in 2015.

We generally do not talk about the economic crisis that has erupted in the country. It is associated with external circumstances. But it was expected. The crisis was prepared gradually inside the economy itself - through the rampant corruption, the growth of monopolism, the suppression of competition. The country's immunity to the crisis was completely suppressed. It cannot be said that the authorities did not struggle against it, these phenomena still cover almost the entire system of relations in the country.

The President believes that much is being done in Azerbaijan in terms of socio-economic and infrastructural development, as if everything is done according to the plan outlined in the state programs. But he himself admits that "insufficient public control leads to violations, and delays the fulfilling the plans."

Sometimes what has not been said is more important than what has been said loudly. Let's try to read from the interview those moments that are smoothened or are not spoken about.

The democratic field is extremely narrow. The opposition has been driven into the Mehsul Square, and there is only one party in the country, the ruling New Azerbaijan Party. All NGOs or the media, simply suspected of disloyalty to the authorities are being suppressed.

The opposition causes irritation of the current authorities everywhere. But nowhere is it represented as absent. In the interview, there is not a word about the opposition in Azerbaijan. As if it does not exist at all: neither liberal, nor radical, nor simply spontaneous. Any power without a shake-up, opposition pressure begins to stagnate. Sometimes she, willingly or unwillingly, can even destabilize the situation. But it is the healthy opposition that insures the political system from the risk of big mistakes - political and economic.

The president should be aware of the arrests of close and distant relatives of opposition members who have gone abroad. This unacceptable practice, at least because of those good words and appeals to the roots of spirituality, which the president speaks about in an interview. If Azerbaijanis are really tolerant people, should not they exercise the same tolerance, tolerance to their political opponents. The one who is stronger should be tolerant. This is inherent in the spiritual traditions of our people. To avenge opponents is to abandon it. The ball is on the side of power.

2018 is the year of the centenary of the creation of the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic, which lasted almost two years. "The traditions of the democratic republic are alive today, and modern Azerbaijan is its successor. Much has been done in a short time for political reform. It is enough to note only that women were given the right to vote much earlier than in many European countries," the interview says.

It is remarkable that the source of that republic is the people. The President speaks of a sense of legitimate pride that it was the Azerbaijani people who became the founder of democracy in the East. Not in this interview, but in a previous speech, the president chided the founders of this republic that they could not keep the independence of Azerbaijan. Although the independence could not be retained in any country that "fell" in those years from the Russian Empire. And Azerbaijan was accepted into the USSR as a republic, and left it as an independent country only because it was once independent. "... I think that if the founders of the first democratic republic could see today's Azerbaijan, I think, they would have been proud of our country, " said the president. May be they would be proud of the country, but hardly by the level of democracy in it.

It has long been known that economic competition cannot be expanded without political competition. And a political monopoly is even more dangerous than an economic one. Recognition of the unsuccessful struggle against the autocracy of bureaucracy was the idea of ​​public control, put forward by the president. In the country, the Appeals Council has been created with all large departments and structures.

"I think that in the coming years the main direction of our activity will be the improvement of the management system. This is an issue related to social justice, bureaucratic disgrace, says the president - it just needs public control ... ". But why do we need public control, when it is possible to streamline the activities of the courts, making them really independent of any branch of government. Including, and making functional such innovations as e-government.

INSTEAD OF CONCLUSION. When the president was asked about the hobby, he replied: "Believe me, these are not just words for the camera, it's actually so. When I see that what was planned, has been done, I see that there is progress in this or that sphere of Azerbaijan's development, it gives a huge moral satisfaction - better than any hobby." He wants to be elected president for a new term, and almost everyone in the country is convinced that he will be. And all calls to boycott elections are nothing more than a political gesture. This is the reality of Azerbaijan. And tomorrow is a day of silence.

Under such conditions, his messages to the future are more important. When the president was asked about the youth, which is the future of the nation, he said that the youth should cherish the roots. He said that "it must be protected, but the youth itself must defend itself against influences from without." A little further he says the following: "... to protect the youth from negative influence from outside - this, I think, is one of the main directions of our ideological work." This is said in the context of the struggle against the influence of radical Islamic groups. But more important is another function of young people - an energetic innovator of the world. It should not be defended, but it needs to open up prospects, social elevators. And always uphold its freedom, which is the pledge of creativity.

"We very sensibly assess the level of political reforms and achievements. We believe that over 26 years of independence the maximum was made, taking into account our history, taking into account the formation of Azerbaijan as a young, independent state; taking into account the geographical location and the existing and possible risks in our region. " This is just an incomplete explanation of what has already happened. Ordinary citizens who witnessed the rampant corruption just at the time of entering big money in the country are unlikely to agree with this; and 230 billion dollars invested in the country over 15 years could have a much greater effect.

That's why the president is increasingly talking about political reforms. But what is meant by them is difficult to say. But they must be deep, not regular cosmetics. We should remain patient and wait for the next day after the inauguration.