Military aspects of cooperation between Baku and Tbilisi

Military cooperation between the two South Caucasian countries began in 2007 and successfully developed on a bilateral basis; within the framework of NATO; and also in the format of military trilateral cooperation of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey.

In 2012, in Trabzon (Turkey), the sides signed a declaration on cooperation in the foreign policy area; in the settlement of the Karabakh, Abkhaz and South Ossetian problems; in the economic and transport field. In May 2015, in Ankara, the defense ministers of the three countries discussed the issue of the safety of railway lines and infrastructures for the supply of energy resources. Another similar meeting was held in December 2015 in Istanbul, at which issues of defense security and modernization of the armed forces were discussed. In February 2017, in Brussels, the defense ministers of Georgia and Turkey discussed the issue of signing an agreement on trilateral military cooperation.

Diplomatic activity in the issue of military cooperation between the three countries immediately began to shift into a practical plane. In 2012, the Georgian armed forces took part for the first time in the Azerbaijani-Turkish exercises, and in August 2014 an agreement was reached between the three countries to create a new diplomatic format - a tripartite meeting of defense ministers held twice a year. In addition, the parties decided to regularize joint exercises and agreed to arrange them annually in early summer.

The military cooperation between Turkey and Azerbaijan stems from the historical, cultural and ethnic proximity of these two countries and does not raise any special questions, but the willingness to join this military cooperation with Georgia also indicates that NATO is the main conductor of this process, consolidate, strengthen and oppose the expansionism of the Kremlin with a security belt consisting of the countries of the former USSR. That is, in the South Caucasus we see the revival of GUAM, perhaps in a slightly different form.

A similar process can be observed on the western borders of the former USSR. In early March 2018 in Chisinau, during the parliamentary forum, the heads of the parliaments of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia signed a resolution on joint counteraction of Russian aggression and coordination of actions on a number of related issues, including the reintegration of the occupied territories, security issues and economic cooperation, as well as issues of integration into the European Union. To participate in the forum were invited representatives of the European Parliament, the US Congress and parliaments of several EU countries. Among the invitees were NATO Deputy Secretary General Alexander Vershbow, Director of the Eurasian Center John Herbst, Executive Vice-Director of the Atlantic Council Damon Wilson and other well-known security experts. The Azerbaijani delegation did not take part in the form, however Azeri ambassador to Ukraine Azer Khudiyev announced the existence of a draft regional agreement between Azerbaijan and Turkey and Ukraine.

Russia and Armenia are concerned

Attempts by NATO and Turkey (which obviously have their separate interests from NATO in the region) to consolidate in the near abroad worry Moscow and Yerevan. So far, no official objections have been heard from these capitals, but Russian and Armenian experts are actively commenting on the above-mentioned agreement and the process of developing military cooperation between Baku, Tbilisi and Ankara, pointing out that this process should not remain without attention.

Discussing this agreement, Russian experts note that "the chances that it will grow into a full-fledged regional military-political organization or at least a monolithic strategic alliance with common long-term goals and tasks are minimal." For the long-term interests of the parties are very different. So if Georgia rushed to Europe, then Turkey tries to pursue a policy of "neo-Islamism" in the region, and Azerbaijan, which became hostage to the Karabakh issue, tries to pursue a neutral or even friendly policy towards Russia.

In addition, Russian expert Nikolay Silaev said: "Turkey will not dare to directly support Azerbaijan in the event of a thawing the Karabakh conflict - with Russia's guaranteed response and no chance of supporting NATO." http://www.rosbalt.ru/world/2017/05/29/1618702.html

It is noted that Turkey far exceeds its partners in all spheres, and such imbalance will become a destabilizing factor in the future. However, Russian experts say, underestimating this regional triple alliance, supported by NATO, would be wrong, because it cannot but threaten Russia's interests. (It obviously implies that Russia's interests lie in military domination throughout the former Soviet Union). "Thus, with all the weaknesses and shortcomings," said political scientist Ivan Sidorov, "the military-political alliance of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey is a significant factor in the system of international relations in the South Caucasus and creates a number of threats to the stability of the region that require careful attention from the main regional players, especially Russia." http://vpoanalytics.com/2017/06/21/turtsiya-azerbajjzhan-gruziya-voennoe-sotrudnichestvo-i-riski-regionalnoj-stabilnosti/

Even more excited are the responses to the aforementioned two and three-way military cooperation expressed by experts from Armenia, the country that is the main source of tension in the South Caucasus. For example, the well-known Internet site Rosbalt published an article titled "Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia create a military triumvirate. Losing allies, Erdogan wants to subjugate even the South Caucasus!" http://www.rosbalt.ru/world/2017/05/29/1618702.html .

"Military cooperation between Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey is a threat to Armenia's security. This format, he believes, aims to isolate Armenia and is a convenient platform for the expansionist aspirations of Ankara and the promotion of its interests in Transcaucasia," says orientalist Academician Ruben Safrastyan. http://www.rosbalt.ru/world/2017/05/29/1618702.html .

"The mere fact of carrying out this kind of military exercises should alert us," the expert believes. "Look at the map, and it becomes clear that the exercises are directed against Armenia."

"The trilateral cooperation of Turkey-Georgia-Azerbaijan over time demonstrates even more clearly the direction against Armenia," expert Roman Karapetyan said and points out the way out of this dangerous situation for Armenia. "On the way to reducing the impact of this cooperation and alternatives, it is necessary at the regional level oppose cooperation in the Russia-Armenia-Iran format." http://www.noravank.am/eng/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=15649

In general, the opinion of Russian and Armenian experts on the prospects for the above military cooperation is as follows: Ankara will not quarrel with Moscow over the South Caucasus, but to lose sight of developments in this direction would be a big mistake ...

At this stage, it is difficult not to agree with this opinion, but the enduring significance of the South Caucasus, the persistent desire of the West and Turkey will be established in this important region, the growing all kinds of crises in Russia suggest that in the course of a decade the situation in the region can drastically change, and then the military cooperation described above can play a positive role in establishing peace and ensuring development in the region.