The "Lame Duck" initiative on Karabakh does not inspire confidence

Invitation by the Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan to hold a meeting to settle the Karabakh conflict on 23 January in Sochi has become a surprise. There are two months to the completion of Medvedev’s term at the post of president, and achieving of any success in domestic and foreign policy seems unbelievable.

The USA calls such politicians as Medvedev, who are leaving their post, a "lame duck". Initiatives of such politicians are not taken seriously. Therefore, such invitation to the presidents of both countries has no meaning. If over three years Medvedev's attempts, when his position was relatively strong, were not successful, despite 10 meetings with the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, how can one more meeting help the resolution of the conflict?

When Dmitry Medvedev invited the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents in Kazan in June 2010, some political groups forecasted signing of the basic principles. However, that meeting did not help, and the presidents returned home without signing any documents.

Forecasts about the new meeting are pessimistic. It seems that Medvedev, who is trying to return his position to the Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, has arranged this meeting not to obtain some results in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict, but he wants to say goodbye to his Azerbaijani and Armenian colleague.

In fact, the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan understand the senselessness of the forthcoming meeting in Sochi. They realize that there will not be any progress in Sochi. It is known that there was almost a quarrel between the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the Moscow meeting held in the frameworks of the CIS summit, so they prefer a long pause between the rounds of meetings. Nevertheless, Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sarkisian cannot say "no" and reject Medvedev’s last request.

In reality, Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sarkisian are preparing for the negotiation process after Medvedev’s departure. According to forecasts, serious confrontation is expected in Russia during elections in March . Putin will face more serious problems than in previous elections, the Russian society longs for changes. Even if Putin wins, there will be serious fight around the results of elections. Therefore, some period after March Putin will be busy with his problems, and the theme of the Karabakh conflict can appear on the agenda by the end of summer months.

On the other hand, in contrast to Medvedev, Putin is not very interested in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. Even if there was Medvedev’s good will, some political and military circles in Moscow, would not allow fair resolution to the Karabakh conflict. As for Putin, he does not have such a headache, as a goodwill. He is on hegemonic position and on the position of Russia’s military and strategic relations with Armenia. This approach is contrary to fair settlement. Therefore, tripartite meetings arranged by Putin, will probably have an imitative character.

However, the reality is the absence of external force, which would be able to break an imitation of Russia, created around the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. Other co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, the USA and France do not want to interfere with the failed mediation of Russia. It seems that Washington and Paris have distanced form the negotiating process. However, the probability of activation of France in this matter promises nothing good to Azerbaijan. An example is the last visit of French President Nicolas Sarkozy to the South Caucasus, during which he demonstrated his special disposition to Armenia. The fact that the French Senate is going to approve the bill on prosecution for "genocide denial" confirms pro-Armenian position of Paris on the official level. Concerning the current U.S. administration, it is not particularly interested in the problems of South Caucasus, including the settlement of the Karabakh conflict.

Thus, neither Russia’s independent activity, nor the mediation of the Minsk Group can accelerate the settlement of the conflict. If to add to it the elections in Russia, Armenia, the United States and France, and next year's presidential elections in Azerbaijan, then we should not expect any progress in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict in the next two years.