The reasons for Pashinyan's amazing success

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Won a political battle, but lost the war

This is a paradox: having catastrophically lost the war with Azerbaijan, having lowered the country's economy by all indicators by 4-10%, Pashinyan was able, with skillful populism, to shift responsibility for the defeat onto the previous presidents, the pandemic and the Armenian military. Inexperienced in politics, Pashinyan deftly maneuvers, as he did when he accused his entourage of supplying him with false information about the combat effectiveness of Russian weapons. Pashinyan was able to overcome the hatred of President Vladimir Putin, who does not hide his friendship with the prime minister's ardent enemy, ex-President Robert Kocharian. Putin believed so much in the prime minister's loyalty to Russia that in the last month of World War II, the Kremlin began to supply Armenia with new weapons.

Let us add to the objective difficulties facing the Armenian Prime Minister the attack of the internal press. Almost all Armenian media and political observers oppose the current government.

The newspaper Yerkramas of Armenians in southern Russia throws mud at Pashinyan every day.

Columnist of the Russian "Sputnik-Armenia" Karine Karapetyan: “if we hold any kind of trial over the current leadership, then only in Shushi. In Armenian Shushi”.

The head of the “Anaket” analytical center, Tigran Abrahamyan, provokes the military against the prime minister: “The accusations (of Pashinyan - Turan) against the armed forces and their commander cannot be left unanswered. Necessary steps must be considered in legal, political and moral spheres.

Political observer Hayk Khalatyan: "To understand the whole rotten essence of Pashinyan, one should not even analyze in detail the whole stream of lies that he carried at the rally ...» Khalatyan does not hesitate to offend his people: “The only plus from Nikol's rally is that we learned how many people in Armenia are without honor and conscience, who are ready to sell their homeland for a couple of kopecks. In fact, supporters of the Turkish puppet. "

Tadevos Avetisyan, coordinator of the economic research program of the ARF Bureau: “The bubble of promises of the ruling party: “economic revolution”, and “from manuals to work” burst. Three years later, we have the complete opposite of false promises. "

The trick was a success

People in Yerevan ask the question: how did Nikol manage to remain more popular than his opponents did? Of course, now not everyone is following him, who walked along with the destroyer of the Sargsyan regime, but there are enough of those left with the prime minister for Pashinyan to claim nationwide support for his course at the rally.

Experts believe that the main culprit in Pashinyan's victory (for now, at least ...) is the absence of a pure politician among the oppositionists, untainted by previous crimes. The announcement of the entry into the struggle for power of ex-President Robert Kocharian, whose name causes persistent rejection in the Armenian society, especially played into the hands of the prime minister. Kocharian directly or indirectly controls many of the leading media in Armenia, hence the dissonance between the barrage of dirty anti-Pashinyan publications and the support of the prime minister among the masses. The propaganda of the former leaders in Armenia simply does not work. Often this propaganda is clumsy, and the mistakes of the opposition hit their own ideology.

When the press and politicians accuse Pashinyan of a military defeat, his supporters ask, “What could he have done”, hinting at the complex balance of power in the region and foreign policy pressure.

In many of his interviews, the prime minister raised the topic of betrayal during the hostilities in Karabakh, speaking of the need to investigate episodes of the 44-day war. Suddenly, the "parquet generals", opposing the head of government, confirmed the Prime Minister's assurances of treason. The sensational scandal with the attempt by the Ministry of Defense to transport secretly a soldier to Karabakh also played into the hands of Pashinyan, who can now blame the generals for the trouble of the parents whose children were taken prisoner.

Karine Karapetyan sees Pashinyan's victory in his inability to fight his opponents. “Looking at the behavior of the opposition forces, one gets the impression that old-time politicians (it is no longer possible to call them “elite”) do not want to learn from mistakes, even from their own. Much surprise was caused both by

The remark of Naira Zohrabyan, a deputy from the Prosperous Armenia faction, who stated that she hates the "rubbish" that brought Pashinyan to power, and the derogatory word "homeless", said by  Vazgen Manulien, the leader of the "Movement to Save the Motherland" (candidate for prime minister from a number of political forces) to the supporters of the prime minister in Gyumri caused great surprise”.

There is no revanchism among the people, ordinary Armenians "surrendered Karabakh"

Russian blogger Alexei Romanov lives in Yerevan. He filmed a video at a rally in Yerevan the day after the signing of the trilateral declaration of a ceasefire in Karabakh.

In an interview for oxu.az, he clarifies the reasons for the stability of the Pashinyan regime. It turns out that in reality Armenia and the Armenians are far from what the local press shows us. The country is not shaking, and there is no revanchism.

“If we take the scale of tension from 0 to 10, where 0 is the usual time, even before the war and even before the coronavirus, and 10 points are the first days after the outbreak of hostilities, then Armenia is somewhere in the middle. The tension is 5 points,” he explains.

The most serious anti-Pashinyan sentiments, their financial support and information support come from the diaspora. Why this happens is easy to understand. For example, Pashinyan will leave, but the representatives of the diaspora will not need to live with the previous authorities, which cause rejection among a significant part of the population. However, a third force did not appear in Armenia. There are only two camps and a simple choice: those who came to power as a result of the 2018 revolution, or those who already ruled the country before the revolution. That is why the opposition does not have much support. Most of the media either directly belong to people from the previous government, or depend on them. Even some new media and telegram channels are against Nikol Pashinyan. They have money on their side, technologies of collecting people for shares. Nevertheless, Pashinyan continues to be the most popular politician. The rally he convened the other day showed this perfectly.

Armenia is not on the side of the "former" ones. The majority of the population is ready to either tolerate Pashinyan or support him. Robert Kocharian does not formally lead the opposition, he is hated in today's Armenia, and he has a huge anti-rating. It was enough for him to say in one of the interviews about his return to politics, as for many it became obvious. Whoever is the frontman of the opposition today, even if it is Manukyan, Kocharyan is behind him and pulls the strings. Therefore, Vazgen Manukyan is not taken seriously.

In the diaspora, the opposite is true. Judging solely by social networks, one gets the impression that there are no normal people in Armenia, everyone is fascist, and the country is a small empire that relies on strength. In fact, there are many sane people. People want to live in peace, work, and not fight. The Armenian people have a feeling of fatigue, apathy. This least of all correlates with the idea of ​​revenge, which is supported by the diaspora and the "former". The shock from the war has led to the fact that somewhere in the depths of their hearts the Armenians are ready to close the "Karabakh history", to overestimate the events, - says a Russian blogger in Yerevan.

Romanov recalls that when the General Staff of Armenia made a statement calling for the resignation of Nikol Pashinyan, at that time the parents of the conscripts demanded that their children not be sent to serve in Karabakh. In the video report of the American journalist, which became famous in Azerbaijan, Armenian parents, refusing to send their children to the army, refer to the speech of President Aliyev, who forbade Armenia to send soldiers to Karabakh.

Time is working for Nikol Pashinyan. Russia and other countries have opened the air gates, and now, every day, Boeings full of passengers are taking Armenian protesters out of the country. In Yerevan, they talk about half a million potential new migrants. Despite the preservation of martial law in Armenia, Pashinyan does not prohibit leaving the country, although if there is an IDP, then the exit for men of draft age should be closed.

Where does an inexperienced prime minister have so much ability to resist a consolidated opposition? This brings to mind the numerous arguments of his opponents about support for Nikola from the West. It is not excluded that in the fight against political opponents Pashinyan is "led" by foreign experts in conflict resolution, who are often accused by Kremlin television. So far, the prime minister's advisers are doing well ...