The Patriarch’s Quiet Diplomacy and the Limits of Stability in the South Caucasus

The process of normalizing relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, launched after a meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Washington in August 2025, is continuing in gradual steps.

In the early phase of the war between Iran, the United States and Israel, the countries of the South Caucasus have found themselves in a familiar but increasingly fragile position: close enough to feel the consequences of the conflict, yet too vulnerable to take sides.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said the country’s new constitution should not contain a reference to the 1990 Declaration of Independence because the document’s call for the reunification of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia is “built on the logic of conflict.”

As Armenia prepares for parliamentary elections in June, the contest unfolding here is about far more than party platforms and campaign slogans. It has become a test of whether the small South Caucasus nation can consolidate its fragile democracy while resisting renewed pressure from Moscow — and whether Europe is willing to help.