March 3, 2026

Regional Turbulence: Iran Crisis and a New Energy Map

Military escalation around Iran has become the dominant driver of the regional agenda. After U.S. President Donald Trump said the operation against Iran could last several months, the conflict moved into a phase of prolonged confrontation.

Israel continued missile strikes on Tehran and on structures allied with Tehran across the Middle East. In response, Iran expanded the use of missiles and drones against U.S. military facilities and those of its allies in the Gulf states.

At the same time, signs of strain appeared inside the Western coalition. Reports that Kuwaiti air defenses mistakenly downed U.S. F-15 fighter jets highlighted coordination problems under conditions of intense conflict.

The key strategic factor remains the Strait of Hormuz. Up to a quarter of global oil trade and a significant share of Qatar’s LNG exports pass through it. Any threat to navigation immediately raises the risk premium on energy markets.

Even without an actual blockade, the threat of restrictions can sharply lift oil and gas prices, increase tanker insurance costs, and amplify volatility across global energy markets.

Assessment: The conflict around Iran is increasingly shifting from a localized military crisis into a source of global energy instability.

Hormuz as the Strategic Center of Gravity

Control of the Strait of Hormuz is becoming the core element of military strategy. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it could target any vessels attempting to pass through the strait.

Iran has substantial tools for asymmetric maritime warfare: anti-ship missiles, fast attack craft, drones, and sea mines. The narrowness of the strait — roughly 33–39 km — makes ships vulnerable.

Military analysts believe the United States may be forced to conduct a separate large-scale operation to clear mines and destroy coastal missile systems.

Such an operation would inevitably be prolonged, given Iran’s multiple naval bases and a sizeable fleet of small combat ships and submarines.

Assessment: Hormuz is turning into the primary geostrategic node of the conflict, where military actions directly affect the global economy.

Iran’s Domestic Political Factor

Despite economic strain and internal discontent, war can strengthen societal consolidation around the authorities.

Political influence is increasingly concentrating around conservative forces and the command structure of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Ali Larijani is viewed by some analysts as a key figure in the future configuration of power.

In the short term, military pressure often reduces protest activity. The national factor tends to override social grievances.

In the longer term, regional and ethnic tensions remain a variable — among Kurds, Baluchis, Arabs in Khuzestan, and Iran’s Azeris.

Assessment: In the short run, war reinforces the security apparatus. Over time, economic exhaustion could create conditions for internal transformation.

Southern Gas Corridor: Energy as Security

Against the backdrop of the Gulf crisis, the Southern Gas Corridor has regained prominence. At the advisory meeting in Baku, participants discussed prospects for expanding gas supplies to Europe.

President Ilham Aliyev said Azerbaijani gas is already supplied to ten EU member states, including Germany and Austria.

According to energy analysts, Azerbaijan’s gas exports in 2025 were around 25 billion cubic meters, with more than half directed to Europe.

Further expansion of pipeline infrastructure, however, would require multi-billion-dollar investment and long-term contracts with European consumers.

The crisis around Hormuz is strengthening Europe’s interest in pipeline routes that are less exposed to maritime risks.

Assessment: Geopolitical instability is once again elevating the strategic value of the Southern Gas Corridor as part of Europe’s energy security.

Ombudsman’s Report: Between Procedure and Politics

On March 3, the annual report of Azerbaijan’s Human Rights Commissioner (Ombudsman) was presented to the Milli Majlis.

Ombudsman Sabina Aliyeva said more than 42,000 citizen appeals were handled in 2025. The report contains 94 recommendations aimed at strengthening protection for vulnerable social groups.

The document covers a broad range of issues — from social rights to legislative improvements and the expansion of e-services.

Observers, however, noted the absence of analysis of one of the most debated issues in recent years: allegations of unlawful arrests of activists, journalists, and bloggers.

The government does not recognize the term “political prisoner” as a legal category, and such matters are typically addressed in technical terms relating to detention conditions and procedural safeguards.

Assessment: The report confirms the ombudsman’s institutional role as a corrective and consultative mechanism, but the debate over expanding its powers remains open.

Administrative Security Reform

The Cabinet of Ministers introduced technical amendments to several regulatory acts, replacing references to the “Presidential Security Service” with the “State Protection Service.”

The changes are linked to implementation of the 2025 presidential decree restructuring the state security architecture.

Rules governing social and insurance payments, pensions, and the accounting of compulsory insurance contributions were also updated.

Separately, the government repealed a 2014 resolution concerning the “Military Hunting Union.”

Assessment: The amendments are largely technical, but they reflect ongoing institutional restructuring within the security bloc.

Overall Assessment

The March 3 agenda was shaped by two interconnected processes:

1. Escalation around Iran, raising risks for global energy markets and regional security.
2. Rising strategic value of energy infrastructure, including the Southern Gas Corridor.
3. Domestic institutional dynamics, reflected in the ombudsman’s report and security-related administrative reforms.

The overarching trend is a tightening linkage between energy, security, and regional geopolitics.

The key takeaway: the Iran crisis could become a major driver of shifts in energy flows and strategic alignments across Eurasia. For Azerbaijan, this is both a window of opportunity and a source of new vulnerabilities.