According to the research note by Fitch Ratings, which was presented by the analyst on Azerbaijan Paul Gamble, economic progress is possible after stabilization of the exchange price of oil at least at the level of $ 35-40 per barrel.
According to him, this year's GDP will fall by 3.3%, and in 2017-2018 there will be a GDP growth of 1.5 to 4%. He predicted double-digit inflation for the year amid falling production of hydrocarbons in the non-oil sector of the economy. There will be a slight increase at the start of consolidation of the manat, although to enhance its credibility in the country needs serious work of the government.
The agency still considers low capitalization of local banks, the majority of whose capital adequacy ratio decreased by 3-5% after the double devaluation of the national currency.
The share of problem loans (overdue more than 90 days) at the end of last year was at 9.5% (+ 1.2% per year) with the prospect of growth this year. There are also restructured loans (15% as of 1 January), which also affects the quality of banks' assets.
By January 1, there was a serious outflow of deposits - from 10 to 15%. In addition, banks are financed at more than 20% of their obligations by the Central Bank of Azerbaijan, or by other government agencies, which creates additional difficulties in overcoming the crisis. --17D-
Economics
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Azerbaijan Railways CJSC (AZD) transported 713,699 passengers in January 2025, marking a 15% increase compared to the same period last year, the company said on Tuesday.
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Last week, Azerbaijani media reported an impending increase in retail bread prices, attributing the rise to an increase in product weight. The following day, an official notification confirmed that the government had no intentions of sanctioning a bread price hike in the country. However, the threat of a price increase for this staple food remains for another reason.
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S&P Global Ratings has revised its risk assessment of Azerbaijan’s banking sector, upgrading the outlook from "stable" to "positive."
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In recent days, there have been claims that bread prices in Azerbaijan have risen. Social media users report that the price of bread has increased by 5-10 qepiks. According to consumer complaints, it is difficult to find weight information on factory-produced bread, commonly known as "zavod çörəyi" in Azerbaijan. In many cases, bread packaging does not include weight details. Similarly, bread sold at smaller bakeries and tandir houses often lacks information apart from the price.
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