Military operation or political zigzags: which will be useful in the election?

No, the reason why the director of the US Central Intelligence Agency and the head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service met in Ankara on November 14, mediated by the head of the Turkish National Intelligence Organization, was not nuclear weapons, but whether or not to allow Turkey's long-planned new military operation across the border. If the "Claw-Sword Operation" shows that this permission was given, it is natural to ask the question "Why was it given?"

There are two reasons for Russia's permission: the first one is the fact that Turkey is the "only window" to the world while it is having difficulty implementing its plans in the war with Ukraine, and the second is that Moscow gave all kinds of open and secret support to the election of Mr. Erdoğan as president, and the AKP winning the parliamentary election with a significant margin. The decision to organize a new military operation on the other side of the border was made by the National Security Council of Turkey on April 29; however, Washington and Moscow looked coldly at the operation, so Ankara waited for an opportunity to start the operation. It is not surprising that Washington gave the green light to the "Claw-Sword Operation". Because when Turkey was conducting short-term military operations on the other side of the border in 2019-2020, Trump's USA did not prevent it. After the arrival of Joe Biden, it became difficult for Ankara to reach an agreement with Washington.

Over time, despite all the warnings of Turkey, Washington did not stop sending the most modern heavy weapons to the Kurdish groups in the northeastern regions of Syria, and by putting the region into the military format it wanted, it relieved the Kurds and relieved itself.

In the discussions about the future of Syria, information is spreading that the Assad regime will not oppose the Kurdish autonomy created in the northeastern region of the country. In such a case, it is not difficult to guess that Turkey's profit in the "Claw-Sword Operation" will be to create a 30-kilometer-deep buffer zone on the other side of the borders of Syria and Iraq, as Minister of National Defence, Hulusi Akar, said. From Turkey's point of view, can this situation mean "do whatever you want to do 30 kilometers from my border"? Does Ankara, which blocked the announcement of the results of the independence referendum held in Northern Iraq in September 2017, together with Tehran and Baghdad, accept the de facto situation within the borders of the two countries after five years?

Could there be a plan to create a de facto situation for the Kurds in the territory of Iran after Iraq and Syria, behind the raising of the issue of the freedom of the Kurds after the Baluchs in the protests that started with the killing of Mahsa Amini in the police station in Iran and have not subsided since two months?

There is no doubt that Tayyip Erdoğan and the AKP will use the "Claw-Sword Operation" a lot in election propaganda. It will be possible to see to what extent the advertisement affects the ratings in two weeks at the latest. In the current situation, everyone can see that Mr. Erdoğan does not feel comfortable.

Despite the announcement of such important economic and social projects, the promise that the minimum wage will be increased by at least 80%, and the claims that the banks will open credit cards from January, dear Erdoğan is making all the moves no matter what to avoid a second round in the presidential election. For example, when no one gives the possibility that the leader of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and General Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, who overthrew the former president Mohamed Morsi in a military coup, will meet again with the head of state of Turkey, can the photo of Erdoğan and Sisi shaking hands at the opening ceremony of the world championship in Qatar be considered an unconditional example of trampling the lines followed in foreign policy until the recent past?

One of the last examples of daily policy change in the country was his offer to Meral Akşener, the leader of the IYI Party, the second party of the opposition bloc, to leave the bloc and join the "national line". Do such calls bring anything to the power bloc?

We wrote earlier that Mr. Erdoğan, who uses all the moves within the legal framework to reach his goal, does not care about political methodologies at all. So, while Meral Akşener, who was in danger of being arrested by Erdogan's direct threats, came to the Manisa rally with a prison bag in 2018, after the attack on Akşener in Rize province, the head of state warned the leader of the opposition party, "See, what will happen next!"

Could the zigzags in this picture have a negative effect on the rating of Mr. Erdoğan and the AKP? None of these zigzags is a problem in the eyes of the masses loyal to Erdoğan and will not have a negative impact on their position at all. Because it is not a secret to anyone that AKP and MHP are in a worse situation. These zigzag approaches of AKP and MHP can close the ranks of the opposition.

Devlet Bahçeli, who accepted what he called a "terrorist" yesterday as "legal" the next day, should think about this.