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Will Turkey's proposal to resolve the 75-year-old problem between Israel and Palestine be supported by interested international players in the region? That is, would the United States and the United Kingdom accept a mechanism that both ensures the security of Israel and strengthens the rights of Palestinian autonomy with the provisions reflected in international treaties?
Two days after the attack by Hamas on October 7, despite the rejection of the draft resolution proposed by Vyacheslav Nebeznya, the permanent representative of Russia to the UN, Moscow continues to insist. With the expiration of the arms embargo imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council since 2015 on October 18, Moscow has launched moves to expand military cooperation with Tehran.
Will Israel's ground operation in the region be a "red line" for Iran, which was once at odds with Hamas and now normalizes its relations with the representative of Palestine and is involved in the production of all weapons, from homemade rockets to modern drones in the Gaza enclave, for Tehran? If so, what will Tehran’s counter-intervention be like? As one of the Russian international commentators expressed, will the end of the "covering strategic patience" come to an end, and will Lebanese Hezbollah, which is positioned near the Israeli border, be mobilized? Will Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, who went to Tehran after the end of the arms embargo, "encourage" Iran, with which they cooperate closely in Syria, to go to war against the unyielding US-British-Israeli coalition in the Middle East? Or will it be more appropriate to increase the number of joint military exercises while expanding the volume of arms trade?
What plans could Tehran and Moscow have in the region, considering the United States as an "enemy" when all parameters indicate that there is no other power that can oppose the military power of the United States, which has sent two aircraft carriers (USS Gerald Ford and USS Dwight Eisenhower) to the region near the shores of Israel in the Mediterranean Sea? Although the Russian military experts we talked to said that "if the United States invades Syria from the northern regions of Israel, Russia will raise its forces there," the processes focused on Israel's ground operation against Gaza show that it is too early to talk about "invasions".
While the sluggishness of the Palestine Liberation Organization stuck in Ramallah under the leadership of 90-year-old Mahmoud Abbas (it is impossible not to remember the agility of Akif Nağı, who started building a party without being able to bring dynamism to the Karabakh Liberation Organization and found the opportunity to get on a bus) has completely satisfied Israel, Hamas's biggest damage to Israel since the second intifada has made this organization increasingly the sole representative of the Palestinian people. Seeing this, the head of state of Turkey also spoke on the phone with Ismail Haniyeh and exchanged ideas. However, the initiative to "integrate Hamas into the political system" came from Ahmet Davutoğlu, who was the chief adviser to the Prime Minister and the Minister of Foreign Affairs in 2005-2006, but 3-4 years of hard work was wasted due to the nonsensical behavior of Hamas leaders.
What about now? How does Ankara want to establish relations with an organization that fired 5,500 rockets at Israel in a few minutes after gaining experience and coming to power in Gaza for 17 years? As proposed, will international forces allow Israel to protect its security and Hamas to represent Palestinian rights under international treaties? To what extent can Ankara influence the granting of these rights? To what extent will the closeness of outlook with Hamas help Ankara to rebuild and develop its relations with this organization? Will the power of the head of state Erdoğan be enough to expand the scope of these works in both bilateral and international relations? In the statements from Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, it is impossible not to notice the importance given to Egypt and Jordan, and the names of Lebanon and Syria are mentioned to inform about the "bombing of their airports". If a 3-member war government, including Netanyahu himself, accepts a "ceasefire" proposal (the probability of such a proposal being accepted on the eve of a ground operation is not zero, but zero on the left), with which organization and under whose leadership will the ceasefire agreement be signed?
With the dead Mahmoud Abbas or with the leader of one of the two active players of the war, Ismail Haniyeh?
I do not believe that Ankara knows this either...
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