U.S. military and intelligence officials now believe the prolonged stalemate in Ukraine has shifted as Russian forces accelerate their offensive, according to a report by The New York Times published on Wednesday.
In the summer of 2024, American analysts had assessed that Russian troops, with minimal training, were unlikely to make significant headway against Ukrainian defenses. However, recent developments have proven those predictions wrong, the NYT reports. Russian forces have not only made significant advances in eastern Ukraine but have also recaptured over a third of the territory previously taken by Ukraine in Russia’s Kursk region. Drone strikes by Russia have also escalated sharply, rising from 350 in July to 750 in August and reaching 1,500 by September.
"The Russian military, which repeatedly miscalculated in the early stages of its 2022 invasion, has notably evolved," a senior American military official told the NYT. With these advancements, some U.S. intelligence and military officials are growing pessimistic about Ukraine’s ability to halt the Russian offensive.
Despite Ukraine’s repeated pleas for Western weapons, U.S. officials contend that shortages of ammunition and arms are no longer the primary issue. Ukrainian forces have narrowed the artillery gap with Russia and are effectively using drones to target Russian armored units. Instead, the Ukrainian military’s chief problem, according to officials, is a shortage of personnel. The report suggests that 57,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died—a figure said to be about half of Russia’s combat fatalities, though the NYT does not cite a source for this data.
According to a Pentagon source, Ukraine has enough personnel to continue fighting for another six to twelve months, after which it may face an acute manpower shortage. The Pentagon also noted that Ukraine has deployed some newly formed brigades to the Kursk region, diverting resources from eastern and southern Ukraine and potentially weakening reserves for a future counteroffensive.
Both Russian and Ukrainian forces are facing shortages, say U.S. officials. However, they add that sustained U.S. support for Ukraine could allow Kyiv to capitalize on Russia’s lack of equipment and troops if the conflict continues into next summer.
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