Lukashenko's Health Raises Concerns Amidst Political Uncertainty in Belarus

Baku/16.05.23/Turan: In a rare appearance on May 15, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko emerged in front of television cameras in Minsk, marking his first public appearance since participating in Moscow's festive events. The injury to Lukashenka's hand prevented him from taking full part in the Moscow memorial to the Unknown Soldier on May 9, where he was unable to lay wreaths in the Alexander Garden together with other CIS leaders. The president was subsequently seen using a self-propelled chair due to swelling. Upon returning to Belarus, Lukashenko notably refrained from participating in local state holidays and delivering a speech at the Eternal Flame, raising questions about his well-being. Furthermore, his motorcade was spotted at a medical facility in Minsk on May 13.

Recent photographs released by Lukashenko's apparatus display the president with a swollen face and red complexion, although he appears to stand firmly. Despite the closed nature of the official event, a security officer with a briefcase is visible behind him. Media outlets critical of both Putin and Lukashenko have gathered information regarding the president's health, particularly concerning his treatment by Russian doctors in Minsk. Lukashenko has reportedly been diagnosed with infectious and allergic myocarditis, a serious condition that affects the heart muscle and can lead to complications such as rhythm disturbances, heart failure, and cardiosclerosis, and in extreme cases, sudden cardiac death. The primary cause of myocarditis is typically a viral infection, encompassing influenza, herpeviruses, adenoviruses, Coxsackie viruses, hepatitis B and C, according to medical sources.

Franek Vyachorka, an adviser on international relations to opposition figure Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, revealed during an interview that Lukashenko had not designated a successor. Despite their frequent appearances on television, Lukashenko's two sons have shown no desire to inherit power from their father. The absence of a universally recognized leader among opposition factions is also apparent, as Lukashenko systematically suppressed the rise of potential competitors.

The question of power transfer in Belarus is further complicated by constitutional provisions. One section of the country's constitution stipulates that power should be transferred to the head of the Council of the Republic, the upper house of Parliament. However, another article specifies that in the event of a violent death, power should be transferred to the Security Council. The authority responsible for determining the cause of the president's death remains unclear.

Russian human rights activist and opposition politician Mark Feygin emphasized that Belarusians are capable of taking matters into their own hands, with potential support from Baltic states, Ukraine, and Poland. However, Feygin cautioned that Russia might be inclined to remove Lukashenko in favor of a more compliant leader. Possible candidates include Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin and Head of the Security Council Alexander Volfovich, both seen as individuals who could align more closely with Russian interests.

As concerns grow regarding Lukashenko's health and the uncertain political landscape in Belarus, the future of the country hangs in the balance. The coming days and weeks will likely shed further light on the potential outcomes and the actions of key stakeholders in this evolving situation.