Will Turkey finally live life to the full?

A new economic program (NEP) proclaimed by Minister of Finance and Treasury Berat Albayrak on September 20, one of the two persons in chatrge on economy management, failed to satisfy the business world. A closer look revealed that instead of improving the situation in economy the progaram puts in the forefront government"s intention to uphold an excessively inflated governmental structure.

Thus, Minister Albayrak stated that essential changes in macroeconomic indices have been made for the oncoming 3 years (for instance, an obvious inflation has been announced for the nearest year, a figure for NEP stands at 15.9%). At the same time, the new program like in previous economic crises provides that within 3-4 years the conomy will run through periods of "narrowing and pressuring" to enter a new period of "growth".

It is evident that "narrowing and pressuring" periods will be realized by means of classic methodoly typical for today"s Turkey. The nature of the methodology lies in the fact that through putting up with pro-governmental companies without reducing the state spending that rose more than 20 times over the past 15 years it is planned to put crisis burden on shoulders of workers. Whereas some large and scores of medium-sized producing companies are waiotiong in line for concordat (agreement), the Minister of Finance and Treasury responded as follows: "We shall be satisfied as soon as we see their..."large invrstments into the new economic program.

Having analysed the new program from interests of working people standpoint, economists paid an attention to the fact that as a result of "narrowing and pressuring " approx. 1 million will be unemployed. The main oppositional Republican People"s Party decided to intensify relations with rural workers as saying that the economic p[olicy of the government paralysed the agriculture ignoring the agrarian sectror in its new program.

Note that specialists, columnists of the RPP welcomed this attack.

In spite of the fact that parties of the real opposition called President Erdogan to decline from such large-scale projects as construction of of the third international airport and the second Istanbul canal in terms of substantial debts, it ie obvious that Mr. Erdogan has no intentions on this track. The whole situation is illustrative that Turkey will have to settlle foreign infrastructural debts for a long time.

The fact that Central Bank"s rates have risen twice over the two months to reach Turkey"s astronomic level, is likely to reduce the volume of investments. It is natural that the export will go down while the reduction of foreign currency supplis will aggravate loan settling issues (or in restructuring with high rates) of growing external loans. An Albayrak"s new program fails in indicate specific methods of problem resolution, nor specify forms of governmental agencies" simplification as one of crisis cauces.

Thus, one of the main reasons of political and economic problems experienced by Turkey today is a gigantic government structure wghich the government of Erdogan promised to reduce but instead increased it by more than 5 times. Let;s look at two aspects of the problem:

1) Ranking first in the world by cars to serve the state - 135,000, Turkey has not reduced a figure, at least, in 7 times without decreasing the state support by half for other spheres, how is Turkey going "to expand" its economy?

2) Having brought the government to heel, Erdogan is engaged in creating alternative structures in the presidential palace (apparatus) in charge of ministerial functions., especially as the Ministry of Finance" main task being budget formation. Suffice it to say that Erdogan has been successful in creating "budgeting department" with 662 staffing position.

Given the fact that oil and gas countries, except for Azerbaijan, can ill afford the establishment of huge government agencies, continious expansion of Turkey"s government agencies with its annual $ 50-60 billion of oil and gas inport deficit cannot be viewed as a positive sympton of coutry"s crisis recovery.

To compare, there are two countries worldwide with strikingly large government agencies: Turkey and Azerbaijan...