Experts on the results of the April war

Experts and analysts continue to analyze the results of the fighting early April, trying to calculate the geopolitical factor and the role of the big powers. It is no secret that the greatest impact on the situation has Moscow, and much depends on Russia.

Former ambassador of Azerbaijan to Russia, political scientist Hikmet Hajizade said that the main task of the Azerbaijani government was not the capture of territories and strategic heights (though that in itself is important.) "The main thing was to bring the Armenians to the negotiating table, and force them to sign and implement the available peace plan, through which the Armenians have to liberate  five regions. This plan of our government, meanwhile,  was supported by Russia and other members of the Minsk process, which are fed up by the Armenian obstinacy," said in an interview with Turan  Hikmet Hajizadeh, commenting on the results of fighting early April. He asked a number of questions: what will happen if Armenians refuse to  return five regions? Again the war? How will Russia behave  in this case? And most importantly, what  we going to pay to Russia for its passive support? It is no secret that Russia urgently calls Azerbaijan to join the Eurasian Union created  by it and the CSTO.

According to Hajizade, it is possible that there was a kind of dialogue between Baku and Moscow, which might look something like this: In exchange for membership in the CSTO, Azerbaijan asked the Russian Federation to help  to evict Armenians from the occupied areas. Moscow responds: "Armenians does not listen to us," and we do not have pressure instruments.

Then Baku says, well, then we will start, but you do not interfere; we will advance a little, scare the Armenians,  and you  do not interfere; so, they will understand that no one will protect them.

But if  five regions  are  liberated, Azerbaijan will have to pay, get up under its umbrella of Moscow, to follow its policy,  to abandon the military-strategic cooperation with NATO and Turkey.  Time will show how all this is real and how much is a good, said Hajizade.

A former high-ranking military, who wished anonymity, confirmed the correspondent of Turan  that he  does not  doubt  the presence of a certain agreement between Baku and Moscow. The matter is that  the fighting will be dosed,  at least at this stage. If Armenians do not manifest accommodating, they  will  receive a new lesson, he said.

Asked about Russia's interests in this situation, a military expert believes that the main aim of Moscow is  to deploy peacekeepers in the conflict zone and consolidation in the region. Such a prospect does not satisfy Baku, which would like to see a multinational forces. However, financial and political interests of the ruling elites of Russia and Azerbaijan are very similar, and the factor of the Russian peacekeepers would be an additional guarantee of stability for the government of Azerbaijan, says military expert.

Referring directly to the results of fighting, he said good training special forces of Azerbaijani Armed Forces, who have shown themselves well, to complete the task. At the same time, the expert pointed out the need to analyze the causes of losses in the north of Karabakh.

Political analyst Arastur Orujlu also noted the factor of military losses, which, however, cannot be excluded. "If you give the military assessment, we have shown over the two important things: First, we are able to liberate the occupied territories, and secondly, we have dispelled the myth of the "most efficient army of Karabakh Armenians."

As for the political outcome, it is important that the international community has recognized the need to actively seek out a real solution to the conflict. "The surge of patriotism and social activity of our citizens dispelled another harmful Armenian myth ,  that Azerbaijan resigned and  no one wants to die for  Karabakh," said Orudzhlu.-02В-