Experts Express Pessimism about Moscow Meeting of Heads of Azerbaijan, Armenia

Baku/11.01.20/Turan: Experts in Azerbaijan posted on Facebook their expectations from today's meeting in Moscow between President I. Aliyev and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. President Vladimir Putin will be the mediator. On January 11, 2020, the first high-level negotiations of the conflicting countries are expected after the Karabakh war in 2020.

Political analyst Arastun Orujlu writes that his expectations are not so optimistic, because over the past two months there has been no positive dynamics in Karabakh.

“On the contrary, we see that those who appeared in Azerbaijan under the guise of “peacekeepers” are trying to revive the remnants of the illegal regime in Karabakh, mobilizing the remnants of its power.

After two months of silence, Ilham Aliyev finally called the actions of the "peacekeepers" arbitrary. But the time for such confessions has passed; in general, this statement does not change anything.

Now the main task of Russia is to formalize the status of its troops and at the same time come to an agreement that in no way allows the deployment of forces of other countries in the region. This is the well-known agreement on the status of the Caspian Sea. Let me remind you briefly that according to this agreement, for any activity of ​​countries not located in the Caspian basin in the neutral waters of the Caspian Sea the consent of all the Caspian states is required.

In addition, Moscow is trying to increase the number of troops in Karabakh and will insist on this today.

In my opinion, another important task for Russia is to sign an agreement that at least sets the task of discussing the status of Karabakh.

These are, of course, probabilities, but they are logically based on what we have seen and analyzed in the last two months,” Arastun Orujlu said.

Former Foreign Minister Tofig Zulfugarov writes on a social network that the format of today's meeting with the participation of Armenia predetermines the list of issues to be discussed.

“Let's try to define them:

1- Progress in the implementation of measures, their practical implementation status, determined by the Statement of November 10;

A) Withdrawal of Armenian troops from Aghdam, Kalbajar and Lachin regions,

B) Measures to stabilize the ceasefire,

C) The practical implementation of measures to ensure the return of the population to their homes.

D) Normalization of communications in the region, including those identified as priorities (Lachin, Meghri),

E) Issues of practical implementation of the peacekeeping operation, including its new component - the Russian-Turkish observation mission.

2- Discussion of the problems encountered during the implementation of the Statement of November 10, but not identified in this document;

A) Preliminary delimitation of the border between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia, the course of the process and the solution of controversial issues in practical terms,

B) Specifying the functions (mandate) of the peacekeeping forces (PF), including their interaction with the Russian-Turkish monitoring mission (MM),

C) Identification and withdrawal of the armed forces of the Republic of Armenia from the territories under the control of the PF and MM,

D) Specifying the rules for the functioning of the Lachin and Meghri roads,

E) Determination of the mechanism for the disarmament and dissolution of illegal armed formations that continue to operate in the area of ​​responsibility of the PF,

F) Implementation of the agreement on the exchange of prisoners and detainees.

This is about the range of issues that I think can be discussed. Adoption of a document other than a press statement is unlikely. The agreements reached are likely to be oral and remain confidential,” T. Zulfugarov suggested.

Milli Mejlis deputy Rasim Musabekov points out that attempts by the Armenian military command to return conscripts to Karabakh after vacations contradict the trilateral statement of November 10 and provoke protests from parents. If these actions are not prevented by Russian peacekeepers, Azerbaijan has the right to block the access of Armenian military personnel to its territory on its own.

Former State Security officer Ilham Ismail expressed concern over the telephone conversation between V. Putin and French President E. Macron. This conversation took place the day before the January 11 negotiations.

“The French President cannot be considered the objective head of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing country after the two chambers of the French legislative body made decisions on unilateral support for Armenia. Moreover, the President of another OSCE Minsk Group co-chair, the United States, did not call Putin. There is no doubt that Macron spoke with Putin to the detriment of Azerbaijan, and today we will feel it,” I. Ismail expects.    ---0------