Experts in Baku on the results of the Moscow talks on Karabakh

Baku/26.07.23/Turan: Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov held a bilateral meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on July 25 as part of his working visit to the Russian Federation, followed by trilateral talks with the participation of the head of the Armenian Foreign Ministry, Ararat Mirzoyan. During the meeting, Minister Bayramov presented conditions for attaining lasting peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Notably, Minister Lavrov's key statement emphasized that the matter of guaranteeing the rights and security of Karabakh Armenians would be addressed within the framework of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity.

Experts in Baku shared their insights on the significance of these talks on social media platforms. Milli Majlis deputy Rasim Musabekov expressed the view that Moscow is dissatisfied with the ongoing negotiations for a peaceful settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which have been influenced by the efforts of the United States and the European Union. There are suggestions that Moscow may seek to regain control over the negotiation process or slow it down by involving new mediators. In this context, a piece from the National Interest magazine by Alex Little was cited, suggesting that a peace agreement could only be achieved with the involvement of Turkey and Iran, with UN peacekeepers playing a role in maintaining security.

Musabekov argued that direct negotiations between Yerevan and Baku are the most effective approach. He believes that the assistance of Moscow, Brussels, and Washington should support direct negotiations separately, rather than in a collective manner. The deputy pointed to the inconclusive experiences with the OSCE Minsk Group's mediation, reinforcing the notion that negotiations should ideally take place without intermediaries.

Farhad Mammadov, head of the South Caucasus Research Center, highlighted that Russia seems to be taking a proactive role in mediation, surpassing the efforts of the West. Mammadov pointed out that the Russian statement specifically aligned with Azerbaijan's demands, mentioning the rights and security of Karabakh Armenians in accordance with Azerbaijan's legislation and international conventions. He contrasted this with the lack of similar statements from the West.

Ilgar Velizade, head of the South Caucasus Political Scientists Club, interpreted Lavrov's statement as a response from Moscow to the European Union's head, Charles Michel, following the talks among the heads of state in Brussels. Velizade suggested that Russia is trying to seize the initiative from Brussels by considering the current realities in the region and avoiding approaches that may lead to complications.

Of particular interest to Velizade is the evolution in approaches concerning the residence of Armenians on Azerbaijani territory. He noted hints in Lavrov's statement about the problems faced by the Azerbaijani population in present-day Armenia. Lavrov's mention of reciprocity opens up possibilities for a more substantial discussion regarding Azerbaijanis residing in Western Azerbaijan.

Overall, these discussions and statements illustrate the ongoing complexities and sensitivities surrounding the Armenian-Azerbaijani talks, with various actors and interests involved in shaping the dialogue and potential outcomes.