Azerbaijan and Armenia: possible outcomes of the arms race

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) is an organization dealing with the problems of war and monitoring the growth of world armaments. SIPRI regularly publishes analytical reports on military procurement of weapons, focusing on which determines the growth or decline of tension in the world. Since 1995, information on procurement of AR and RA has been constantly published in these reports.

Military budgets

As can be seen from the table, from 1995 to 2005, the military expenditures of the two countries were comparable, after which a large-scale gap began in favor of Azerbaijan. Since 2002, the AR has increased the volume of arms imports by 164%, ranking the 38th among more than 100 countries of the world, while in Armenia over the past 10 years, the level of procurement of weapons has declined. In the years 2002-2006 Armenia was 71st, but now it is in 84th place.

In 2007-2011, 55% of weapons were imported from the Russian Federation, while in Armenia almost all weapons (96%) were of Russian origin.

According to SIPRI (Baku / 14.03.18 / Turan): "Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2016-2017 bought arms worth about $700 million. During this period, Armenia ranked 54th in the world, importing arms worth $ 124 million (100% of arms supplies to Armenia were in the Russian Federation).

Azerbaijan at that time took 27th place: purchased in two years armaments for $551 million (mainly from Israel and Russia and a small number from Slovakia and the Czech Republic).

The scale of the military budgets of two, in general, small countries - a colossal, capable of plunging them into economic chaos. While this perspective is somewhat removed due to petrodollars coming to the AR and in most cases of gratuitous transfer of weapons to the Russian Federation granted a loan of $ 200 million to the Russian Federation for the purchase of Russian weapons).

Probability of military operations

However, in this case too, the arms race leads to a permanent escalation of tension and the erosion of stability. Thus, in April 2016 the armed forces of the Azerbaijan broke through the echeloned and strengthened line of defense of the Armenian forces on several sectors of the front. At the same time, the Azerbaijani Army demonstrated for the first time the ability to carry out offensive operations with the combined use of enemy destruction facilities: "drones", long-range artillery, aviation, tanks and multiple-launch systems.

Since military operations (which in fact continue with less intensity) take place on the territory of Azerbaijan, Baku has more prospects in the war of attrition, exhausting the insignificant potential of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. In this regard, the course of the conflict, as well as the ways to solve it, can acquire new options. This is indirectly evidenced by the course of the negotiation process after the military operations of 2016.

In any case, in the near future militarization of the region will increase, which can lead to new large-scale clashes.

Military potential of Azerbaijan and Armenia

In April 2016 (see globalpower.org website), the military power of AR was estimated 1.5 times above Armenia.

According to data for 2014 (published on the CIA website), Azerbaijan spent 5.1% of GDP on military needs, Armenia - 4.29%. In both cases, these figures grew all the previous years, but the ratio persisted - Baku armed much more actively than Yerevan.

In the distribution of the quota of the USSR, as defined by the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), quotas of 220 tanks, as many armored vehicles, 285 artillery systems, 100 combat aircraft and 50 attack helicopters were established for Azerbaijan and Armenia. There is no precise data on how much the armaments of a country fit into these quotas, but the official data of the parties are falsified.

For example, in 2013 (according to official Russian data provided by the United Nations), the Russian Federation supplied 10 tanks and 10 armored personnel carriers to the AP, the AR did not specify a single one.

Assessment of the military power of Armenia is even more complicated. In addition to the fact that this country does not tend to advertise its purchases, there are two formally functioning armies in Karabakh - the armed forces of Armenia and the army of the unrecognized region, and it is very difficult to calculate their armaments. The Nagorno Karabakh armaments, which for some reason it cannot declare.

As a result of estimating the quantity of military equipment by different sources, they sometimes differ.

In Nagorno-Karabakh can be deployed from 170 to more than 370 tanks, from 270 to 320 armored cars, from 290 to 320 artillery systems, about 40 systems of volley fire.

The Azerbaijan republic and Armenia, according to various sources, are armed with unmanned aircraft, anti-tank complexes and MANPADS, air defense systems, including S-300 complexes, multiple rocket launchers, tactical ballistic missiles "Tochka U" and others.

Soldiers

The draft age for the Azerbaijani army ranges from 18 to 35 years. At the same time the service life of conscript soldiers is 18 months or 12 for graduates of universities. You can be employed under the contract from the age of 17.

According to the CFE quotas, the maximum strength of the AR Army is set at 70,000. In different years the real number fluctuated up to 95 thousand in 2005-2007, in 2016 it was about 66 thousand. Up to 300 thousand, according to approximate calculations, can be listed in reserve.

The number limit for Armenia is set at 60,000. According to various sources, the Armenian army (excluding armed groups in Karabakh) has about 45,000 military personnel, and another 200 thousand are on reserve.

According to various estimates, there may be 20-22 thousand people in Karabakh armed formations, and another 20 to 30 thousand - in reserve.