War, peace, democracy... Are we ready for a change?

The large-scale military operations launched on September 27 this year to liberate our occupied lands ended on November 10. Our occupied districts and cities were mostly liberated from the occupying Armenian army during the 44-day battles. The military phase of the war has virtually ended after the November 10 tripartite ceasefire statement by Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Russia. A very difficult and complicated political-diplomatic stage has been entered in the implementation of the agreements set out in the ceasefire statement.

Will our country be able to successfully continue this stage? What steps need to be taken? Who and what will be most needed in this phase?

After that, the conflicting positions of the parties to the conflict on the final settlement of the Karabakh conflict will most likely be discussed at the table, not at the military level. Azerbaijan must mobilize all its resources to turn its military advantage into a lasting peace. Along with overcoming the severe consequences of the war, the task is to achieve a lasting solution to the problem.

It takes a long time and resources to overcome the severe consequences of the war and achieve lasting peace. Territorial security, demining, restoration of communications and utilities, construction of road, communication, electricity, and gas infrastructure, logistics, administrative-political and humanitarian problems must be addressed quickly.

The socio-political activity of the government within the country should serve to strengthen the foreign policy. It should be noted that while Russia seeks to secure its interests in the post-Soviet space with conflicts and military-political elements, the West seeks to secure its interests mainly through legal and political means. Russia's "peacekeeping" presence in Karabakh has partially secured its current interests in the South Caucasus. The West is virtually excluded from these military-political processes. It is possible that the West will more actively pursue its interests in the region through legal, political, and diplomatic moves.

The formula for the successful completion of military operations in the country at the military-administrative and political-diplomatic stage is the mobilization of intellectual, political, and legal resources of society. The administrative methods of the government will not work to direct these resources. On the contrary, it can have a negative effect. It is important to make serious political decisions without delay, to implement reliable legal, political, and economic reforms.

To what extent our country is ready for this process?

First of all, it is necessary to radically change the system of socio-political relations in the country. A comprehensive action plan is needed to start the democratization process. It would be expedient to abandon the governance that hinders the emergence of democratic traditions in society, does not recognize the rule of law, and undermines socio-political participation and democracy. At the same time, economic freedoms must be fully guaranteed.

It is necessary to release all political prisoners in the country and end administrative arrests, torture, and political persecution. There is a need to remove all obstacles to free media through legislation and to repeal laws that impede the development of an independent civil society institution.

It is impossible to develop a modern governance system in a new direction with traditional governance thinking. The last early parliamentary elections have shown that the government is not yet able to make major political and legal reforms, nor is there a clear political will in this direction. The formation of a democratic parliament, the judiciary as a state body that restores independence and justice, can enhance the country's international image. At the same time, the most reliable guarantee of domestic political stability depends on these factors.

The government cannot solve the fundamental problems of society by carrying out structural reforms and personnel changes. It is very difficult to control social tensions in the country with the current authoritarian rule. A system of governance based on personal loyalty, family ties, and trust is not a reliable guarantee against external risks.

A mechanism should be put in place to involve more naturally selected people in various instances of governance. The fight against corruption must be transparent in political and legal areas.

It is possible to form public control in political and legal areas by establishing free media, an independent civil society, and a multi-party political system. Rule of law, transparency, accountability, declaration of income of officials, transparent conduct of public procurement (tenders) in the competition through artificial intelligence on the Internet, the adoption of the competition code must be implemented.

In the process of successful military operations on the Karabakh issue, the political and psychological power of the government has significantly increased. By turning this into an opportunity, the government can gain ideological and political dividends. Achieving stability and progress in society depends on democratic elections. 27 years of military victories took Armenia away from reality and made its subsequent defeat inevitable. Azerbaijan must quickly choose the path of reform in order not to fall into such a psychological trap.

It should seek to sign a new cooperation and partnership agreement, which provides for the association and economic integration, with the European Union. It must reconsider its relations with the democratic institutions of the West. At the same time, political and military relations with Turkey exist as a factor that insures the government against external risks.

Nasimi Mammadli